Top economist reveals the jobs that are ‘recession-proof’ in uncertain global financial times

Workers are on high alert for a potential recession, and they’re doing what they can to shore up their finances and job security for uncertain times ahead.

As consumers and businesses shift their spending priorities, it also means workers in some jobs may be shielded from a downturn more than others.

When it comes to “recession-proof jobs,” the strongest one will be “closest to essential goods and services”, like health care and groceries, says Cory Stahle, an economist at the jobs site Indeed.

Within health care, some of the more stable and in-demand jobs will be for nurses, doctors, physicians, surgeons and therapists, which saw a surge in patient demand during the pandemic and has yet to slow down, Mr Stahle tells CNBC Make It.

Meanwhile, retail workers will be needed at supermarkets and other places that sell staple goods, including cashiers, grocery stockers, people who load and unload trucks, and supply chain and logistics workers, he says.

If new tariffs from the Trump Administration raise prices, Mr Stahle says, consumers may adjust by budgeting for only the essentials: “You might have to change the type of food you’re eating, but you’re still going to have basic needs.”

Meanwhile, some “less solid jobs” in today’s market are in more white-collar knowledge worker roles, including software development and marketing, Mr Stahle says.

That said, the type of industry you’re working in makes a big difference, he adds. A software developer working for a tech company may feel more job-insecure than a software developer who works at a hospital, for example, he says.

Where jobs are growing and shrinking

Across the US, jobs are stronger in the Southern region, where postings are up 20 per cent compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to Indeed data; hiring is weaker in the West and Northeast, where tech jobs in particular have been pulled back, Mr Stahle says.

Overall, 75 per cent of new jobs added in 2024 came from health care and social assistance, government, and leisure and hospitality, according to an Indeed analysis of Labour Department data.

Software development jobs, on the other hand, are down 33 per cent compared to pre-pandemic numbers, Mr Stahle adds. And notably, federal government jobs have been on the chopping block under the Trump Administration.

The once-considered “bastion of safety” may no longer be a safe career option for the foreseeable future, Mr Stahle says.

The concentration of opportunities in certain sectors is leading to a “bifurcation” in the job market, he says, where solid numbers around average job growth in the labour economy, boosted by just a few sectors, don’t match up with many people’s experience of a lousy job search.

“A lot of the growth has been coming from just a couple of industries,” Mr Stahle says, “and so anybody outside of those industries has really felt iced out by this job market.”

Put another way: “If you average out the temperature of freezing cold water and boiling water, you get something in the middle. But there’s obviously a big difference between freezing water and boiling water.”

How to prepare for a layoff

For job-seekers and those in less recession-proof jobs, Mr Stahle notes that it’s important to remember “a career isn’t something that happens over a year or two; we need to be thinking in the longer term of decades.”

To that end, he recommends workers focus on their skills and put themselves in a good position to be valuable to their employer, no matter what industry they’re in, and “whether there’s a recession or not.”

For example, for all the discussion around using AI at work, many employers are still desperate for workers with basic computer skills, Mr Stahle says, like being able to build and navigate through spreadsheets or communicate effectively over email.

“Layoff-proofing” your job may not be completely possible, Mr Stahle says, but “being able to build out your skills” can minimise the impacts of job market disruptions and help you find another job more quickly if needed.