ANDREW CARSWELL: Net zero is heading for disaster. But the Coalition is in no position to change it

There is one compelling reason the Coalition would be utterly insane to walk away from a commitment to achieving net zero by 2050.

And it isn’t because the clean energy transition in Australia is going swimmingly.

Oh, it ain’t.

In fact, it is an unmitigated disaster that Australians are paying for through higher electricity prices, increased intermittency and the job-hurting erosion in the competitiveness of our key industries.

And not because it’s working.

Oh, it ain’t.

In fact, emissions are not decreasing. Since Labor waltzed into power in 2022 with a promise of doing more to address climate change, emissions have increased.

In 2024, Australia’s emissions crept up by 0.05 per cent thanks to a rebound in flights, more long-haul trucking, a so-called “wind drought” that left turbines idle, and a drop in hydro output from Tasmania. Turns out you can’t power a continent on good intentions.

So we’re paying crippling electricity prices for absolutely no environmental gain. Burning the planet and burning a hole in our wallets.

How wonderful.

It would have been a worse outcome on emissions if not for lower crop production and a slow down in chemical and steel manufacturing, sectors ironically struggling to maintain production levels due to high energy prices.

So yes, there is more than a case to be made that abandoning the decarbonisation of our industrial economy and building a least-cost, solutions-agnostic, reliable energy system, would be a better course of action for Australia.

But that is where we strike the problem. The sales job.

The Coalition’s ability to convince Australians of anything right now is not only highly questionable, it’s laughable.

When you’re practically a punchline to a national joke, it may be a better idea to keep your head down for a while, rebuild your narrative, realign your policy bearings back to your values, keep a hubris-prone Government accountable, and steadily, ever-so-steadily, regain the trust of once-supportive Australians who turned their backs on you, marched into the enemy’s camp and pitched a tent.

Not by suggesting a back flip on climate and energy policy; a shift so dramatic it could upend trade relationships, undermine investor confidences, and reinforce the very Trump-lite perception the Coalition is trying to shake.

You’ve gotta learn to crawl before you can run an ultra marathon.

One has to completely separate the genuine merits of easing back from Australia’s ironclad commitment to net zero by 2050, with the Coalition’s actual capacity and ability to sell such an argument.

The argument may be gaining strength, but the Coalition’s ability to prosecute it remains weak.

This is a question of timing, because history will be kind to those who spoke out against this rabid renewables-only obsession with cutting emissions before it wrecked our energy system or priced Australians out of it.

But right now, if you get this course wrong, you consign yourself to the political wilderness.

It has to be an argument made from a position of strength. Not weakness.

Because the majority of Australians still want their political leaders to take meaningful action on climate change. They may not be across every detail or fully understand the costs involved, but they expect consistent and credible leadership in this space.

That support has been drilled into them for two decades.

It’s now an article of faith, driven not by genuine comprehension, but by the belief that being a good citizen means backing ambitious climate action.

We rarely question this ingrained dogma, even when the obvious results smack us in the face. When 20 per cent annual increases in electricity bills arrive in the mail. When manufacturing plants close citing crippling energy costs. When productive farms are criss-crossed with new transmission lines. When investors choose Chile or Vietnam as safer bets than Australia.

Must. Reduce. Emissions. Stay focused!

Weaning Australians off that drug is a monumental task; one far beyond the reach of a shell-shocked Coalition still grappling with its own identity and purpose.

It’s like trying to convince the public they’ve spent years inside a cult, and then asking them to escape by hopping into the back of your unmarked van.

Get in. Trust us.

How does a bruised and battered Coalition sit down with the average suburban household and make the case for rethinking climate and energy policy, without once again sounding like relics from the Stone Age?

And in an era of deep disenfranchisement with major political parties and an increasing abandonment of traditional media, how does its argument even cut through the noise long enough to earn a hearing, let alone persuade anyone?

Even if the evidence is gathering in their favour.

Better to demonstrate a steady hand on fixing a profound long-term problem, embracing a patient, commonsense approach that seeks to lower power bills, safeguards jobs, and keep the lights on.

An approach that doesn’t require burning the house down to make a point.

Andrew Carswell is a former adviser to the Morrison government