BEN HARVEY: Chalmers travels into past to find hypothetical future to compare to present to justify Budget

Jim Chalmers would be a great comedy actor. His Budget speech showed he can play the straight man in the most riotous productions.

Most people would dissolve into fits of laughter should they have to deliver lines such as “we’re repairing the Budget” in the same breath as “next year’s deficit is $42 billion”. Not Jim.

There wasn’t a hint of a smirk when he said “spending restraint and finding savings” to describe a Budget that directs $7.6 million to “support the giant pandas at Adelaide Zoo”.

He even kept a straight face when he said “debt is down”, when The Simpsons’ Ralph Wiggum has the arithmetical grasp to see it is anything but. In a Budget speech made for Adam Sandler, Jim deadpanned lines with the earnestness of De Niro.

To justify his everything’s rosy narrative, the Treasurer travelled into the past to find a hypothetical future so he could compare it to the actual present.

That’s how our financial Marty McFly could deliver, in just one take despite its patent absurdity, the line that “gross debt will hit $940b this financial year, $177b less than what we inherited”. That makes it sound like the country’s gross debt was $1.1 trillion when he moved into Josh Frydenberg’s office in 2022, right?

It wasn’t. It was $927b.

The $177b “reduction” refers to the fact that back in 2022 we expected debt in 2025 to be $1.1t.

So $940b is less than we thought it would be but still $13b more than when Anthony Albanese won the election.

Despite Jim’s protestations, the upside difference wasn’t due to “spending restraint”. In pandering to voters (and pandas) Jim will be shelling out $23b more next year than this.

And it certainly wasn’t from “finding savings”.

The total Budget in 2025-26 — that’s the cost of running the Federal Government — is $785b.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher? $2.1b. Even Ralph knows that’s not much chop.

The better than expected debt is due mainly to runaway commodity prices, something in which Jim and Katy had no say.

Don’t be duped by this or any Government’s historical sleight of hand; by every conceivable measure we are living well beyond our means. It doesn’t matter how hard you squint or from what angle you look at the Budget papers, we are drowning in a wave of red ink.

Gross debt ticks over $1t next financial year. That number’s too ridiculous even for Dr Evil.

By 2028-29 it is projected to be $1.22b. As a proportion of gross domestic product, debt jumps from 35.5 per cent to 36.8 per cent over the same period.

The annual interest bill is going from $27.9b to $38.2b (and before you ask, yes interest payments are going up as a proportion of GDP as well).

The $38.2b in interest in 2028-29 will be almost as much as we’re scheduled to spend on Medicare ($40.9b) and just shy of the amount Canberra will give State health systems that year ($38.8b).

It will be more than we spend on the PBS ($21.7b), 21/2 times what we spend on the army ($14.6b) and more than three times as much as we will spend on the Royal Australian Air Force ($12.5b).

Still, Jim was able to say “the dividends of responsible economic management” without cracking up. COVID made debt fake news. What’s another $42b on the Visa when you owe a $1t?

It’s all relative.

Especially when you frame a Budget with a flux capacitor.