ANDREW CARSWELL: With three little words, Peter Dutton has revealed the Liberals’ bold top dog play

With three words, Peter Dutton threw caution to the wind.

“We will win”.

It remains to be seen whether this bold statement, splashed across the front page of Sunday newspapers, was intentional — a calculated move to antagonise his Labor foes, a rallying cry to energise the troops, or even a move to pry a few campaign dollars loose from donors.

Perhaps it was just an honest answer, one throwaway line amid a compendium of phrases shared in a long interview that covered everything from changing nappies as an older brother, to the harrowing tales of attending scenes of domestic violence as a newly-minted boy in blue.

The interview, paired with an extended conversation on Sky News that same morning, pulled back the curtain on a man so often defined and maligned by his critics, revealing the values that shape him, the beliefs that drive him, and the warmth behind the often cold and calculating political operator.

A campaign director’s dream.

But Peter Dutton doesn’t write the headlines. Editors who hear surprising revelations do.

So there it was, intentional or not, in giant 128 font, bold in more ways than one.

“We will win.”

To call such moves unconventional would be polite. But then, this election contest is anything but conventional. Historical political norms are in danger of being upended, as a restless and disillusioned public cast off restraint.

To call it a risky departure from the well-thumbed script of carefully-managed political campaigns, would be less polite. But this election is shaping up as a contest between action and perceived inaction, decisiveness and doubt. Straight shooting and verbal diarrhoea.

But was this bold prediction appropriate and helpful? Will it raise expectations too high, given the electoral maths remains difficult, even taking into account the rising support for the Coalition and its leader in the election-deciding States of NSW and Victoria?

When it comes to fighting an election, the art of managing expectations sits somewhere between pseudoscience and sorcery.

It is not an agreed science, particularly given the changing nature of political contests, the increasingly febrile attitude of the voting public, and the Americanisation of leadership battles.

But one thing that unites the political strategists is the need to collar the underdog status. Pat that dog. Take the thing for a walk. Whatever you do, you must own it.

It may be counterproductive, then — if convention still holds — to claim the underdog status in the upcoming Federal election and at the same time tell Australians you are going to win “without a doubt”.

The mixing of messages is problematic.

In close elections, it is crucial to empower voters to understand that their vote actually counts. If they determine the election result is in any way a foregone conclusion, they will be more inclined to fritter it away on an independent or lodge a protest vote elsewhere.

Voters need to believe they hold the final say. And for the Coalition, facing a steep electoral climb just to get within striking distance of the Government — a swag of 19 seats — they need every single vote to push Labor into premature opposition.

Even with momentum swinging the Coalition’s way, even with growing discontent with Anthony Albanese that is quickly morphing into anger, this trend must translate directly to a No. 1 vote beside a Liberal or National candidate. Sentiment alone is not enough, as the Werribee State by-election in Victoria proved — where the Liberals failed to capitalise on Labor’s sharp decline in primary votes.

If the Coalition is merely banking on an Albanese backlash to get them home, they will be sorely disappointed with the result, even if the polling suggests more than 50 per cent of Australians believe Labor doesn’t deserve another term. That doesn’t automatically translate into Australians wanting to give the Coalition a go.

They must empower voters who are discontent with Albanese with a sense of agency — that their choice can drive real change, that their vote can send Albanese packing.

There is nothing wrong with this confidence that is emerging within the Coalition, both from its leaders, staffers and party faithful. They are right to be delighted with the current state of play that has them close enough if good enough. They are right to be enamoured with the polls that show progress, and a popularity contest that proves the public is beginning to entertain Peter Dutton as Prime Minister.

It is not hubris. It is not overconfidence. It is merely excitement. Excitement that not only are they in the contest after only one term in Opposition, but that they are an increasingly plausible chance of causing an upset.

But, big breaths, and internalise.

Because the difference between plausible and probable is mighty.

There are still a lot of seats up for grabs and a lot of Australians to convince to willingly break with 100 years of tradition in giving a first-term Government another go.

Speaking of breaking convention.

Andrew Carswell is a former adviser to the Morrison government