Top NATO official says China’s rapid nuclear build-up poses a deterrence challenge to the US

One of NATO’s top officials says China’s rapid nuclear build-up poses a deterrence challenge to the United States amid warnings China and Russia could embroil the West in a two-front war as early as 2027.

Pentagon official, Jim Stokes and now the head of NATO’s Nuclear Policy, made the comments, speaking exclusively to The Nightly in an interview for the Latika Takes podcast.

China has added around 100 new warheads to its stockpile since 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, meaning its nuclear arsenal is the fastest-growing in the world.

The Institute said China currently has around 600 nuclear warheads and could potentially have at least as many Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the USA by the 2030s.

China has previously said it had no comment on the Institute’s estimates and claimed it does not participate in an arms race.

Mr Stokes said one explanation for China’s quest to stockpile so many nuclear weapons could be to acquire leverage “if it ever tries to do anything vis-a-vis Taiwan.”

“That does present a deterrence challenge to the United States and all of its allies in terms of how do you potentially deter conflict in two regions and perhaps simultaneously in the Indo-Pacific region and also the Euro-Atlantic region,” Mr Stokes said.

“A lot of people are talking about what that two-nuclear peer challenge would look like.”

Last week, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich warned that the Alliance’s 32 members must be ready for the possibility that Russia and China could launch wars in Europe and the Pacific simultaneously, possibly in 2027 — the same year that China’s President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to take Taiwan, with force, if necessary.

There are nine nuclear-armed countries in the world: the US, UK, France, China, Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, India and Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons.

Asked specifically what Australia, which is not a member of NATO but a partner country, should do in light of China’s nuclear build-up, Mr Stokes recommended deepening engagement with NATO and drawing the United States, Australia’s top security ally, closer.

“I would say for Australia, while it’s good to have dialogue with other Indo-Pacific nations and European nations and other nations from around the world, talk to the United States, continue to cultivate that bilateral relationship there,” he said.

“And if it’s a discussion about nuclear issues, that’s the power that you should be talking to.

“Engage with the United States and have an understanding about how it is thinking through nuclear strategy and posture, doctrine and capabilities.

“In much the same way, the US has had a more structured dialogue with Japan and also with South Korea in recent years about nuclear issues.

“It’s similar in the way that we have consultation mechanisms within NATO about nuclear issues.

“That’s one way non-nuclear states can have a better understanding of these things and also some influence or some input into the decision making of nuclear powers by having those relationships and being able to talk about these things, to be able to have their input into, say, policies or any decisions that may be made, and then also be able to better explain it to their own populations.”

He also urged engagement with NATO to show combined political will and come up with ways to “tackle some of these really hard deterrent and defence challenges that we face.”

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese skipped NATO this year for the second year in a row, despite being one of only four leaders from the Indo-Pacific invited to the annual leaders’ summit.

He has taken two international trips since his 94-seat landslide, opting to meet the Pope at the Vatican and last week spending six days in China visiting President Xi Jinping with his fiancée Jodie Haydon, to promote deepening business and tourism ties with Beijing.

By contrast, he has not visited the White House or met Donald Trump since his re-election last November and inauguration in January.

The opposition’s foreign spokeswoman, Senator Michaelia Cash urged the Prime Minister to strengthen, and not diminish, the US Alliance.

“We have known for some time that the world faces myriad strategic challenges,” Senator Cash said.

“Mr Albanese has said we live in the most dangerous strategic circumstances since World War II.

“The Opposition has continually called on Mr Albanese to do two things – lift Australia’s spending on defence and focus his international attention on securing the AUKUS alliance.

“At a time of global uncertainty, now is a time to strengthen the US-Australia alliance by building our influence in Washington, not diminishing it.”

The Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment when asked if Mr Albanese raised China’s nuclear build-up with President Xi during last week’s marathon trip.

Mr Stokes said China remained coy on why it was building such an enormous stockpile in peacetime and that while Beijing claimed to have a “no first-use” policy of using nuclear weapons, it was to be treated with scepticism.

“That buildup … and the diversity of weapons and the delivery systems and why, what is that really for?” Mr Stokes said.

“They’re not going to pull some document off the shelf and say, what did it say, what did Chairman Mao talk about back in the 1960s?

“They tried to use that to promote the fact that their nuclear deterrent is peaceful, but then they’re using it to obfuscate the fact that they’re also building up.

“Ultimately, I believe that decision-making is made by the Chinese President, and so I don’t know that any leader is going to feel beholden to some doctrine that’s written somewhere.

“They’re going to make decisions perhaps in a crisis situation or even a conflict situation based on the advice that they’re given, based on their own beliefs.”

He said, unlike Western nuclear powers, the US, UK and France, China had never engaged in bilateral arms control talks, risk reduction measures or hotlines.

“There’s a lot more that we could do with China if they had it in their interest, but they’ve shown they’re clearly not willing to do that,” he said.

Earlier this month, Foreign Minister Penny Wong told the Institute for Strategic and International Studies on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia that China was projecting its military power further into the region.

“And we have seen the worrying pace of China’s nuclear and conventional military buildup without the transparency that the region expects,” Senator Wong said.