Demanding Greens loom as Labor Party’s biggest threat heading into Federal election

Labor began the week by lashing Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as “dangerous and divisive” and warned Australians they couldn’t risk him being prime minister.

But the truth is, he’s not the Government’s biggest threat.

Realistically, Labor won’t be returned to Government in their own right after the next election, due by May.

Labor’s primary vote has never been lower, and come election day — unless something drastic happens between now and then — Redbridge pollster and former party strategist Kos Samaras doubts it will even hit 33 per cent.

Even with preference flows, Labor is set to lose precious seats it needs to preserve its majority rule, and Australia will be left with a hung parliament.

Best case scenario, Mr Samaras says, Labor falls just short of gaining 76 seats and is left with a “shallow minority”.

In that case, Labor will need to work with two to four crossbenchers, likely to be independents.

But if Labor loses more than that, it will be a “deep majority” that requires working with large sections of the crossbench.

Enter the Greens.

The country’s third largest political party are in with a shot of picking up seats from both Labor and the Coalition at the next election. At this point in the election cycle Labor is emphatically ruling out working with them and is steadfast in its determination to retain the majority.

But the Greens know there’s a chance they’ll be needed, and they don’t plan on making it easy or coming to negotiations without a big wish list.

Leader Adam Bandt set out some of the party’s demands at the National Press Club on Wednesday: a three-part “Robin Hood” tax reform.

Under his proposal, a 40 per cent tax would be levelled on the “excess profits” of big businesses raking in more than $100m a year; mining companies (excluding lithium and nickel) would be taxed at a higher rate, and the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax would be raised again and expanded.

He says it would create a $514 billion windfall over the decade that would allow dental to finally be put into Medicare.

A conga line of Labor ministers came out of the gate this morning to criticise the minor party’s “thought bubble”.

“The Greens have this luxurious position of where …. they can come out with an idea, but they never have to implement it. They never have to look at the tax system as a whole, they never need to worry about how the economy performs,” Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said.

Acting Prime Minister Richard Marles lashed the policy proposal as “unrealistic”, and downplayed the prospect of doing a deal with the Greens.

“We are focused on winning a majority at the next election in our own right, and doing so, so that we can manage the economy for all Australians, and we are seeking to win that majority based on what we’ve done,” he said.

Unrealistic (and dubious) as the Greens’ policy might be, Labor’s bid to rule in its own right after the next election is, at this rate, fanciful.

Labor is not only at risk of losing some of its city seats to the Greens, but is fighting two other battle fronts. The Coalition stands to gain a couple of outer-suburban and regional seats from the Government, and Labor could also lose ground to independents - whether they be teal or Muslim candidates - in a splattering of electorates across the country.

The election is likely seven to nine months away. And, as Mr Samaras told The Nightly, things could still get worse.

“I don’t see the political climate getting any better. The government doesn’t have the capacity to improve its position, it doesn’t have the tools at its disposal to mount an argument within the Australian public that they deserve to be elected with an increased majority, that’s going to be pretty difficult,” he said.

“The government needs to be focusing on convincing the Australian public why they deserve to be re-elected as a majority government, because they’ve failed to do that so far.”

Labor knows its bleeding votes to the Left, especially among the younger electorate. But after doing a deal with the Coalition to send the scandal-plagued CFMEU into administration, there’s a real likelihood the party of workers could lose votes from its blue-collar union base.

If Labor wants to prevent the Greens from holding the balance of power, it’s going to need to put up a hell of a fight.

The Greens, who have always had a less formal association with the unions, are now posturing themselves as the only party that cares for the workers.

The party’s rising star Max Chandler-Mather, often likened to Anthony Albanese in his younger, more radical days spread the message at the union’s Brisbane rally on Tuesday.

“I am here because when the rights of workers are under attack, I believe it is our responsibility to stand with those workers and defend them,” the Griffith MP said to the crowd.

Labor have criticised him for addressing a rally that featured banners depicting the Prime Minister as a Nazi. Mr Chandler-Mather has distanced himself, labelling those signs “offensive”, and accused the government of seeking to distract away from the matter at hand.

“I spoke at the rally in support of the tens of thousands of construction workers, 99.9 per cent of whom have faced no allegations of wrongdoing, and yet they have all been deprived of their basic right to a democratic, independent union and natural justice,” he said

Ousted CFMEU leaders have vowed to campaign for the “absolute destruction” of the Labor Party. While the Greens Party isn’t set up to allow organisations or unions to affiliate, there’s nothing to stop votes from angry unionists flowing to the minor party.

“Working people around the country have been let down by Labor and Liberal who have chosen to work together and to make life harder for people,” Mr Bandt said on Wednesday.

The Greens have increasingly been setting themselves up as the only party that cares about Australians doing it tough, and will pitch to voters in the lead-up to the next election that a Labor-Greens minority government would make “people’s lives better”.

“We are prepared to work with Labor, are they prepared to work with us? If we find ourselves in a shared power parliament, Labor is going to heave to learn to play well with others,” Mr Bandt said.

While having a seat at the cabinet table won’t be the Greens’ priority, Mr Bandt wants Labor to know it’s gearing up to take the balance of power in the House of Reps, as well as the Senate.

If Labor wants to prevent that from happening, it’s going to need to put up a hell of a fight.