ELLEN RANSLEY: Crime, rail and business in focus as Coalition campaign skirts struggle street

For an election that will be won or lost in outer-suburban backyards of Melbourne, the man vying to be the next prime minister took a laissez-faire approach to get there.

Peter Dutton took a few days donning the high vis at breweries, factories, and a brickworks factory across Brisbane and Sydney — paired with a smattering of events with multicultural communities, and a trip to the Queensland floods — before he finally headed to Victoria on Tuesday.

But rather than head into the backyards of Australians feeling it the toughest from interest rate rises and inflation, or community infrastructure that would perhaps benefit from his $6.5bn pledge to back in Melbourne’s Airport Rail Link, the Opposition Leader instead went straight to a winery in the safe (12.4 per cent) Labor-held seat of Calwell.

Standing with shadow infrastructure minister Bridget McKenzie and flanked by candidates for Calwell and five surrounding electorates, the group stood at a picturesque panorama on the sprawling estate, pointing at a few planes taking off and landing from the airport before they headed inside for a press conference.

The media were confounded, the rail project would end kilometres away. Senator McKenzie said she had just gone where her advancers had told her.

The announcement he made could prove popular in Victoria, where the Allan Government is bleeding popularity and the expensive Suburban Rail Loop - to be scrapped by the Coalition — is a massive strain on an under-siege budget. Shacking Anthony Albanese to this project, as Dutton did, could prove very strategic.

His second job of the day was right out in the sticks, in the suburb of Berwick which will be in Labor-held Bruce at this election. It’s one the Liberals feel confident they can win. Mr Dutton sat down with community members impacted by crime, an issue the Opposition Leader is passionate about, and given the emotional testimony from attendees, it is salient.

But when the number one issue in town is cost-of-living, especially in the areas near that winery, everything else is second fiddle.

Mr Dutton has fallen behind in the first polls of the campaign. He’s right to point out that there will be a lot of polls between now and election day, but there are rumblings among the Coalition that he has been slow off the starting block in what could wind up biting him down the line.

In the first few days of the campaign, he has focused a lot on manufacturing and business, a crucial voting bloc of course. But the path to the Lodge — or Kirrabilli House if you’re Peter Dutton — is via suburban backyards.

“This election will be decided by which candidate and party has the better economic credentials to manage the economy, and relieve cost-of-living and housing affordability. Every other issue is secondary,” former Liberal strategist Tony Barry told The Nightly.

Mr Dutton says “you haven’t seen anything yet”.

“Wait until we get into this campaign and see more of what we have to offer . . .when you see the two parties by election day,

Of course we’re only four days in. But as Mr Barry rightly points out, early voting starts on April 22 — only three weeks away.

About 50 per cent of ballots will be cast before May 3.

“The campaign plan needs to adopt to that fact . . . You don’t want to release a big policy in the final week when so many have already voted,” he said.

While he downplayed the possibility of it happening, he said if the Coalition released a real “ball-tearer policy” in the dying days of the campaign, there could be voters who have already cast their ballots regretting their decision.

“They need to get the timing right,” he said.

Former Scott Morrison media boss Andrew Carswell, meanwhile, thinks the Dutton approach will prove effective.

“They’re laying out their broad policy overview, which is important in the first week, especially because there are still a lot of people not tuning in yet,” he said.

Referring to the gas strategy, fuel excise policy, and a plan to make buying a home easier for young people, Mr Carswell said the Coalition were “gradually building their pie”.

“And they’ll be able to use that to springboard for the more important stages of the campaign,” he said.

“You’ve got to build momentum . . . It’s more important than at critical stages of the campaign that they’re talking to households about energy costs and cost-of-living.”

Only time will tell which school of thought the Dutton camp adopts in the coming weeks, and May 3 will reveal whether it’s been effective.