LATIKA M BOURKE: Emboldened Anthony Albanese will face Labor’s long-term leadership trauma if he wins

I’m not getting ahead of myself, is Anthony Albanese’s daily refrain.

But the Prime Minister’s declaration, made to the Latika Takes podcast for The Nightly that he would not just serve out a full term but seek a third, shows he is not so much measuring up the curtains but intent on fortifying the foundations of the house.

If he wins, of course.

“We went through the revolving door where you had people who won elections in ’07, 2010, 2013 and 2016 removed by their own party,” Mr Albanese told reporters on a campaign stop in Bridgewater in the Tasmanian marginal seat of Lyons on Tuesday.

“I reckon the Australian people had a gutful of that, and that’s why Bill (Shorten) led us from 2013 right through to 2019.”

He suggested his leadership was similarly safe from any challenge.

“I’m not looking over my back, I’m looking forward,” he said when questioned if he might end up the way of Bob Hawke, who, though victorious a record four times, outstayed his welcome and was knifed by Paul Keating.

“And we have an incredibly united caucus,” Mr Albanese said.

“And that is one of the reasons why we’ve been able to focus on the needs of the Australian people.”

The Prime Minister’s greatest skill is what you don’t see — his management of the party.

He is right to say that the caucus is uniquely disciplined and that he has helped change its culture from what it was before.

When Kevin Rudd won a landslide government in 2007, such was the euphoria, the theory at the time was that it would take the Coalition three, possibly four, terms to get back to government. Not only did they boot the Coalition from power after 11 years, but they also turfed a sitting prime minister from his own seat for the first time since 1929.

But Julia Gillard destroyed that dream when she put the knife into Kevin Rudd’s back and took the prime ministership.

Labor lost power in two chaotic terms and voters only forgave them after a similar bout of infighting from the Coalition that culminated with three years of Scott Morrison.

Albanese, a supporter of Kevin Rudd, whom he installed as Ambassador to the United States, not only watched that episode very closely — he learnt from it.

He returned Labor to power, only just, such was his poor campaign in 2022.

And that sense of mediocrity continued in government, concealed initially by an excessively long honeymoon in the media and wished away by a deeply traumatised Cabinet that had no desire to repeat their destructive behaviour of the Rudd-Gillard years.

That PTSD, combined with Mr Albanese’s exceptional party management, has preserved him from any serious challenge or threat despite his poor polling since losing the Voice referendum.

But as The Nightly pointed out on Monday, a poor first term need not be a barrier to a second, third or fourth term.

John Howard, who Labor ejected from the seat of Bennelong, also had a dreadful start to government but went on to win four elections. He is regularly used as the benchmark for good government by both Labor and the Coalition.

Mr Albanese has long expressed — privately — his desire to similarly entrench the Labor Party as a long-term government.

It’s not a crazy ambition, and nor is it out of the question. Polling shows that Labor would currently keep its majority or, at worst, go into minority government.

The Coalition has left it far too late to release serious policy alternatives, and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has indulged himself with a string of unwanted proposals, such as the abruptly aborted working-from-home ban.

If the Coalition doesn’t gain much at this election, the wipe-out in 2022 will start to solidify as opposed to being a post-COVID aberration.

This is the hope that Mr Albanese has, but there’s a good dose of self-interest in there, too.

Mr Albanese’s decision to publicly box his due-to-be-reshuffled Cabinet in behind him, as he did when asked about his long-term ambitions and lauded the strengths of enduring leadership, demonstrated that he is not just focused on entrenching Labor as the party of long-term government but also himself as its leader.

Mr Albanese has appeared confident and across the detail this campaign. Bad, testy, shouty Albo has not been on show this time and it has paid off in the poll.

He is emboldened, and it’s starting to show.

Like on Sunday when he made his dislike of fellow NSW Left faction colleague Tanya Plibersek gratuitously public when he blanked her approach for a hug.

The Liberals seized on the uncomfortable encounter, which was televised, pumping out memes that riffed off a popular 90s sitcoms Seinfeld and Friends.

Their point, well made, was that these two are hardly the “mates” and “buddies” that they tell the media.

The wider message is that although you don’t see it surface very often, it’s not all rosy on the frontbench, despite the discipline shown.

“I like fighting Tories, that’s what I do, that’s what I do,” Mr Albanese tearfully told the cameras, as he urged his colleagues to stop their infighting as Rudd reclaimed his throne to lead the Labor Party to their deserved loss in 2013.

Never mind that Australia’s centre-right is the Liberal Party and is never called “Tories” as Britain’s Conservatives are, this is one of the truest things Mr Albanese has ever said.

Mr Albanese’s power play has been lashed as cockiness. Maybe so. But it would be wrong to see his comments solely through this lens.

“He wants to win,” observed one of his closest confidantes to The Nightly, commenting on his changed approach to campaigning in 2025.

But he is eyeing a prize greater than just this election. And the clues lie in his choice of city to launch his official campaign.

These are set-piece moments in the campaign aimed to grab voters’ attention when leaders offer their big-ticket promises, as both did on the weekend with their rival housing policies.

Mr Dutton, who is hoping for a suburban-led path back to power for the Coalition, chose Western Sydney, where Labor governs at the State level.

Mr Albanese went to another Labor-governed State, Western Australia, where Roger Cook led the party to another landslide and cementing it as what is virtually a one-party state.

Mr Albanese made a great show of sauntering to his Saturday morning press conference at Elizabeth Quay with his WA caucus and candidates along with the Premier.

They looked like a mini army, such was their number.

At the launch the next day, Premier Cook introduced Mr Albanese on stage. The Prime Minister praised the West Australian leader as an “outstanding Premier”.

And it’s not just tribalist flattery, he wants some of that WA gold dust.

The Prime Minister has not said that about Jacinta Allan in Victoria, where the Labor Government is on the nose. At the recent rally in Queensland, the former Labor premier and current leader were not even name-checked.

It is the WA model of electoral success that Mr Albanese has in mind.

He may say he is not getting ahead of himself, noting the “mountain he has to climb” on May 3 to become a second-term prime minister for the first time since 2004.

But it should not be so surprising that the man who is the first to point out that he is constantly underestimated has been quietly dreaming a little bigger for a long time.