Queensland State election shows Peter Dutton how to win at Federal level, and how Albanese can stop him

The Queensland election provided a lesson for how Peter Dutton could win power, and what Anthony Albanese should do to stop him.

The Liberal National Party triumphed in the Sunshine State’s election on Saturday over two basic human dislikes: crime and inflation.

LNP leader David Crisafulli was a clear but boring speaker. Labor leader Steve Miles was fun and energetic. Their personalities didn’t matter.

Queenslanders, disillusioned with a government that seemed to have done so little with so much, voted for a conservative alternative.

West Australia psephologist William Bowe estimates the LNP will take 53 seats, giving the party a majority of six in the single-house parliament.

Potent ads

The margin would have been greater if the Labor Party didn’t breed such cunning campaigners.

Voting began October 14. Among the Labor ads were warnings — made on the flimsiest of evidence — an LNP government would restrict abortion rights.

Both sides soon realised their potency. By election day, an estimated 80 per cent of Labor and pro-Labor union advertising, in real life and online in some places, promoted the supposed threat to reproductive rights.

As voters walked in to cast ballots, especially women, Labor volunteers called out: “Protect a woman’s right to choose.”

The campaign’s effectiveness was evident on election night. Those watching the count for the first five hours were presented with the prospect of a hung parliament.

Even the premier was sucked in. “Watching the results tonight it is clear … the LNP is unlikely to have a majority,” Miles said in a non-concession speech shortly after 11pm.

When votes cast on earlier days were added to the tallies, the size of the LNP victory became apparent: a 7 per cent swing and majority LNP government.

Extra exposure

The reason for the disconnect: votes counted earlier Saturday evening were cast that day by people exposed to two weeks or more of the abortion scare campaign.

Early voters had less exposure to the abortion message, and were therefore more likely to vote for the LNP, especially in Brisbane.

There is no way Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will not have noticed.

Facing an opposition leader who has become popular by prosecuting conservative causes, including crime, immigration and nuclear power, Albanese needs a version of the abortion campaign to limit Labor losses in what could be a tight contest.

The scare campaign manual contains a couple of rules.

The campaign must begin late so voters don’t forget, and the other side doesn’t get enough time to discredit the fallacy.

And it needs to contain a grain of truth.

Albanese’s advisers are probably already working on theirs.

Scary options

Maybe privatisation? The government introduced a bill banning the sale of the national broadband network this month.

But do many Australians know or care they’re watching movies or shopping online thanks to government-owned satellites or fibre-optic cables?

Women’s reproductive rights could be another. Federal Indigenous Affairs spokeswoman Jacinta Nampijinpa Price criticised abortion last week. Queensland Nationals senator Matt Canavan has long been a critic of late-term terminations.

But the Federal Government has limited power over the procedures, which are regulated by the states and territories.

Which is why the campaign worked in Queensland.

The new State Government has promised it will not change the law, which permits terminations after 22 weeks of pregnancy if two doctors approve. Doctors are told that “if a live birth occurs” during an abortion they should “not provide life sustaining treatment,” according to a parliamentary report.

Crisafulli never clearly answered when asked if he would allow his MPs to vote according to their conscience if a bill is introduced to change the law.

One LNP figure on Monday said such a bill would never pass even on a conscience vote because every member of the cabinet, and the Labor Party, would vote against it.

One attempt, though, might be all Albanese needs.

If new LNP MPs, such as the pro-life, ex-senator Amanda Stoker, decide to initiate a show down over one of the most polarising questions of modern existence, they might want to wait until after the federal election, for Dutton’s sake.