US election: Kamala Harris’ macho problem — are men holding the Democratic presidential candidate back?

As a pollster for Number 10, James Johnson was used to hearing male views about a female leader, in this case, his old boss, former UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

“You would often get quite bizarre comments about what she was wearing that I don’t think you’d have probably got about a British politician,” he said.

“But generally, I actually think Theresa’s gender worked in her favour because towards the end of Theresa May’s premiership the positive comments about Theresa focused on her being a woman.

“And as they saw being ganged up on by all these backstabbing men in suits.

“That gave her a sense of resilience but she perhaps wouldn’t have so easily been able to harness if she were a man.”

Britain is comfortable with women in charge, three Conservative female leaders have all occupied Downing Street.

With Australia now a decade on from its first and only woman leader, Labor’s Julia Gillard, the United States remains the outlier of the AUKUS trio, something Democrat Kamala Harris is hoping to end next Tuesday.

But despite claims that re-electing Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump will open a “gender gulf” over abortion and contraceptive rights, the Vice-President faces a tough battle with male voters, and in particular black male voters.

Mr Johnson, founder of research firm JL Partners has conducted more than 40 focus groups in the seven swing states that will decide the outcome of next week’s poll, which some analysts say is the most consequential in America’s history.

The deciding factors in the Presidential race are less policy and more personality.

And Kamala Harris’ problem, or as two male African-American voters in Georgia specifically put it to Johnson a couple of weeks ago, is a “woman problem.”

“One chap put it pretty clearly by saying, and this is a quote, ‘I just feel like sometimes you need a dick to run America,’” Johnson said, in an extended interview with the Latika Takes podcast.

“There is the sense of very traditional gendered views in parts of the States, which is that there’s a macho quality needed that is related to strength.

“And that is certainly holding Harris back on some of these metrics.

“We might not like that but that is the reality on the ground that is holding back some of her support.”

He described the views reflected as “pretty striking” and a “sit-up-and-listen-moment” that was unprecedented in his career.

“It really does test your focus group poker face to the max when you’re getting these comments,” he said.

“But you’ve got to let them speak, I’m not here to judge the voters, I’m here to hear them and work out what that means for the election.”

Mr Johnson said Harris was most struggling with Hispanic and Black men as well as white Christian males.

“I almost feel uncomfortable sharing this one with you because it’s so brutally honest,” he said.

“But one voter said to me, mixed-race man in Georgia about 25, he sat me down and he said: ‘look, if you think white men have a problem with black women, wait till you hear what black men think.’

“There are certainly elements of gender and race here that I’m not sure we would see in the UK or Australia.”

Harris’ difficulty in reaching black males has been something her campaign has been trying to redress with some political and pop star power.

Former US President Barack Obama recently chastised male voters for “coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses” not to vote for Harris, something he said seemed more pronounced with “the brothers.”

“I’ve got a problem with that,” he told voters in the key state of Pennslyvania.

“Because part of it makes me think — and I’m speaking to men directly — part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”

This weekend Harris rolled out the former first lady Michelle Obama and pop star Beyonce who urged women to vote.

Donald Trump, by contrast, received the endorsement of Muslim leaders at a rally in Michigan, a swing state with a high Arab population and where the war in Gaza has threatened to suppress Democratic turnout.

But Mr Johnson said the overwhelming hesitation voters had about Harris was: “Is she strong enough?”

“There are some serious concerns that voters have one is strength and this is the number one hesitation in the focus groups,” he said.

Trump has homed in on this and told a rally at Madison Square Garden in the red state of New York that “no one respects her” and “no one takes her seriously.”

Mr Trump claimed to be experiencing unprecedented levels of support from blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Jews and Muslims.

But Mr Johnson said there were difficulties for Mr Trump as well, with voters who were undecided concerned that returning him to power would revisit the psychodrama of the first Trump Administration upon the United States.

He said they were also concerned about the prospect of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 agenda being adopted, even though Mr Trump has tried to distance himself from the manifesto set out by the Republican think tank.

Project 2025 is a controversial agenda that contains many ideas embraced by MAGA Republicans although not all.

One of its more contentious ideas is to ban the abortion pill and enforce little-used laws to stop it being sent in the post.

“We asked in a Pennsylvania poll what’s your biggest hesitation and the biggest answers from undecided voters was ‘plan’ and ‘2025’,” he said.

“There are lots of suburban women who are very concerned about abortion rights and will be voting on that basis.

“It’s possible too that it’s going to have an impact in some of those ethnic groups, that there are some shy Harris voters out there.

“With my interviews with Hispanic men in Arizona, somebody said to me: ‘All the Hispanic men might have their yard signs for Trump outside but in every single one of those houses, there’s a woman who’s voting for Harris because of concerns about abortion.

“It remains to be seen how big an effect that will have but there could be enough of those people switching from the Republicans or indeed from not voting to voting for Harris because of that,” he said.

US elections are determined not by the popular vote but by the Electoral College meaning the result boils down to seven swing states with Pennsylvania being the most critical.

Mr Johnson said the polling, which is neck and neck with a slight strength for Donald Trump, was mismatched with the research from focus groups and that it was the most difficult election race he’d ever tried to read.

“By a country mile, to the point where a lot of pollsters aren’t actually trying,” he said.

“The numbers are there but when you do these interviews with voters there are still serious hesitations about Trump and it just makes me wonder whether America is ready to vote him in again.

“Our model currently has this race as lean Trump,” he said.

“But that still means that there’s a 40 per cent chance of Harris winning.

“Anyone trying to call this is bullshitting.”