Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan to box on after 'grim' polling, despite risk of dragging down Federal Labor

A Labor premier is on the electoral ropes but vowing to keep punching, even if she costs her party the Federal election.

A poll of 2013 Victorians by independent polling firm Redbridge, published by The Herald Sun on Thursday, showed Premier Jacinta Allan’s net satisfaction rating was minus 35.

It’s the lowest of any political leader in the nation, with state Labor also trailing the coalition 51-49 on a two-party-preferred basis.

Political scientist Zareh Ghazarian said the state Labor government’s popularity has been sliding since Daniel Andrews handed the reins to Ms Allan in September 2023.

“That (two-party-preferred result) is putting Labor in a state election-losing position,” the Monash University senior lecturer told AAP.

“That’s a massive swing of around six per cent (since the 2022 election).”

The RedBridge co-director and former state Labor campaign strategist Kos Samaras said it was hard to envision Ms Allan reversing the tide ahead of the 2026 state election as voters views were “baked in”.

“She’s got a bit of work ahead of her if she wants to turn this around,” he told ABC Radio Melbourne.

“It’s across every single group in every single demographic in the entire state of Victoria.”

Ms Allan’s slumping personal popularity could also taint the party’s federal Labor push to retain marginal Victorian seats such as Chisholm, Aston and Bruce, Dr Ghazarian said.

“It’s grim reading for Labor ... it’s really troubling.”

Almost two out of three people (64 per cent) surveyed said the Allan government’s performance would influence their vote at the federal election on May 3.

Dr Ghazarian pointed out the Liberals have picked up on the vibe, linking Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ms Allan as part of a “double trouble” campaign.

It is likely Labor will shed seats in the battleground state but voter anger may not produce a major windfall for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, Mr Samaras said.

While Labor’s vote is fraying, many Victorians are turning to independents and minor parties rather than the coalition.

Dr Ghazarian suggested he would not be surprised if internal detractors of Ms Allan sought to use the dire figures to agitate for leadership change.

Ms Allan would not be drawn when asked if she would stand aside as premier at the request of her colleagues.

“They know that I’m a fighter, that I’m focused on those things that Labor governments focus on for Victorians”, she told reporters.

The Bendigo East MP said she was confident she still had the support of Labor’s left and right factions.

Deputy Premier Ben Carroll and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams have both been touted as potential replacements.

But former Victorian Labor premier Steve Bracks poured cold water on speculation that he was open to a leadership change.

“I firmly support the leadership of Jacinta Allan and believe she is best able to win an historic fourth term for Labor,” he said in a statement.

Dr Ghazarian urged caution, noting Labor’s strength over the past decade has largely come from its stability in comparison to the Liberals who swapped leaders again in late December.

“Being seen to be chopping and changing leaders may be highly problematic, especially if there is no automatic, clear frontrunner,” he said.