US election, 2006 UN resolution best chance at avoiding all-out war: former Lebanon ambassador

The United States will want to avoid an all-out war given the fast-approaching election, a former Australian ambassador to Lebanon says, but the actions of Iran could complicate matters.

Middle East analyst Ian Parmeter, who served in Beirut between 1996 and 1999, said reactivating the 2006 United Security Council Resolution that ended the last war between Lebanon and Israel could end the fighting, but there were “so many factors at play” it was nearly impossible to predict what would happen next.

Iran fired a barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday (local time), in retaliation for Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon which killed leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate to the latest escalation, saying “Whoever attacks us — we will attack them”, with the United States promising to assist Israel in defending itself.

The attacks came a day after Israel began a “targeted” ground invasion of Lebanon, vowing to dismantle the terrorist group and its infrastructure.

Mr Parmeter claimed it would not have been in Iran’s interests to get involved in the fighting while Hezbollah — a terrorist group funded by Iran — was in such a state of disarray after the assassination of Nasrallah, but the latest actions showed how quickly things were moving.

“No war ever goes to plan,” he told The Nightly.

“There are so many factors in play now that making firm predictions about what will happen is virtually impossible.”

He suggested Israel was not under “any illusions it could destroy Hezbollah”, and its aim was to instead reclaim areas of the country’s north where 60,000 Israelis have been displaced.

“They probably want some formal agreement with Hezbollah, and the US has said that could happen if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza… But whether that offer is still on the table, we can’t be certain,” he said.

“If UN Security Council resolution 1701 — which ended the 2006 war — could be reactivated, if Hezbollah agrees to abide, that would mean an end to the fighting and the ability of displaced Israelis to return home.”

He said the closeness of the US election would also be an influencing factor.

“The Americans are really advising Israel to be very wary and be careful that it doesn’t actually get involved in a wider war,” he said.

“I think we can say quite clearly the US does not want… the US would really like war, fighting in the Middle East, off the agenda by the time the election is held.

“We can see logically what each party would want, but that doesn’t mean it will happen.”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has strongly condemned Iran’s “dangerous” attack on Israel, re-issuing calls for a de-escalation and a ceasefire amid criticism Australia’s position is now at odds with the United States and United Kingdom.

Asked if Australia supported Israel’s efforts to “take out Hezbollah infrastructure”, Mr Albanese said Israel “has a right to defend itself”.

“What we have called for consistently is for a de-escalation in the region. Along with our friends in the United States and others, we issued a joint statement with 13 nations just a week ago,” he said.

“And we did that in the context of making sure that the Israelis can return to northern Israel and that the Lebanese can return to southern Lebanon. One of the things that that statement said was, diplomacy, however, cannot succeed amid an escalation of this conflict.”

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has accused Mr Albanese of “walking away from a bipartisan position” of supporting Israel.