King Charles III Australia tour: What will the royal waves mean during this visit?

Love him or hate him, King Charles III is soon to land in Australia, but will the waves be welcoming? Or offering a final farewell?

The 75-year-old monarch arrives on Friday for his first trip Down Under since taking the throne. Together with Queen Camilla, he will be kept busy with all the formal dinners, wreath laying, fleet inspecting and hand-shaking one might expect during a royal tour.

The couple are in Australia for five days, with official engagements planned in Sydney on Sunday and Tuesday and in Canberra on Monday. It’s widely speculated they will attend Sydney’s Randwick Racecourse on Saturday for The Everest program which includes the $5 million King Charles III Stakes.

As Parliament House workers polish the silverware, the King will be all too aware of the mixed reception his official visit will likely elicit.

Where Queen Elizabeth II had a firm hold on the affections of many Australians, republicans and monarchists alike, her eldest son has not always enjoyed the same attention.

A significant number of politicians of all persuasions, boardroom heavyweights and everyday Australians have been vocal in a desire to see the nation close its doors on the British crown at the end of QEII’s reign.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese - a Republican - made it clear when attending the King’s London coronation that a future and second referendum was not off the table.

“I want to see an Australian as Australia’s head of state ... I haven’t changed my position on that but we have to respect the institutions which are there,” he told ABC News at the time.

While propriety and decorum remain, the icy message is getting through.

Australia’s six state premiers are said to be missing a reception for the King and Queen in Canberra on Monday.

“There’s probably an element of political grandstanding,” royal commentator Dickie Arbiter told AAP.

“Because this visit is short, there might be a bit of sour grapes that there is no attempt for him to go to other (states and) territories, but I don’t think it’s a direct snub on the King. It’s probably a direct snub on Albanese and his cabinet.”

It was for the prime minister to determine the King’s schedule, explained Mr Arbiter, who worked for Prince Charles and then-wife Princess Diana for five years as one of the Queen’s press secretaries.

This is the King’s first overseas tour since beginning his battle with cancer, with doctors pausing his treatment temporarily to make the trip, which culminates in him attending his first Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting as monarch in Samoa. As such, his schedule has been pared back.

“The speculation in this country was that people won’t turn out, but I think they will turn out. There is a great affection for the monarchy as an institution,” Mr Arbiter said.

“He will be received with dignity and with politeness and there’ll be a lot of people turning out to see him.

“I’d be surprised if there weren’t a few hugs for the King Down Under.”

Though Mr Arbiter said he believed there was still a lot of enthusiasm for the royal family - even among younger Australians with no historical ties to Britain - he acknowledged the Queen’s passing might have been the signal to reassess relations.

“Playing devil’s advocate now would be the time to reconsider ... or two years ago,” he said.

The Australian Republican Movement is describing the couple’s overseas tour as the “chance to wave goodbye to royal reign”.

“By all means, let’s welcome Charles and Camilla to Australia, but let’s see this as the last visit of a sitting monarch. Makes a lot of sense,” co-chair Esther Anatolitis said in a video posted on X.

Whatever the future has in store for King Charles and Australia, he is certain to make the most of it, Mr Arbiter added.

“The King has never made it a secret that his happiest time in terms of his education was at Geelong’s Timbertops camp where he spent two semesters. He’s always had a love affair with Australia,” he said.

“He has always been a people person ... he will want to meet as many people across the board, making no exceptions.

“(Despite the fact) that he does have cancer and he can tire quite easily, he is strong and he’s very positive and he will want to do as much as possible.”