ASIO anticipated spikes in violence against Jewish targets months before caravan incident in Dural, NSW

The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation says it anticipated spikes in politically motivated violence months before a caravan laced with explosives, intended for Jewish targets in Sydney, was discovered by the side of the road 10 days ago.

ASIO’s Director-General Mike Burgess said on Thursday that despite the shocking spate of attacks on Jewish interests recently, the national terrorism threat level would remain at “probable”.

“We have seen a disturbing escalation in the targeting of Jewish interests and a disturbing escalation in the severity and recklessness of the targeting, with general harassment and intimidation moving to the targeting of people and places,” he said.

“While ASIO keeps the national terrorism threat level under constant review, I do not anticipate changing the threat level from PROBABLE in the immediate future.

“One of the key reasons we raised the threat level in August 2024 was because we anticipated spikes in politically motivated violence.

“Unfortunately, the security environment has evolved almost exactly as we expected.”

“Probable” means ASIO assesses there is a greater than 50 per cent chance of a domestic terrorist attack or attack planning in the next 12 months.

The current terrorism threat level is the same as it was at the height of the Islamic State caliphate.

This comes after a local resident reported an abandoned caravan they had found on the side of Derriwong Rd at Dural in December to New South Wales police on January 19.

The man had moved the caravan onto his property last month before realising it was filled with mining explosives, a note with the addresses of a Sydney synagogue and other Jewish buildings, and a note that read “f**k the Jews”.

After news of the explosive-laced caravan was leaked to the media on Wednesday, NSW Police Deputy Commissioner Dave Hudson revealed at a press conference that arrests on the “periphery” of their caravan investigation had already been made.

Those comments are reportedly related to Sydney couple Tammie Farrugia and Scott Marshall.

It has been revealed that last month Ms Farrugia and her partner had spruiked on Facebook that they wanted to buy a caravan.

“Looking for a caravan for sale hit me up if U have one cheers,” Ms Farrugia posted.

But then last week Ms Farrugia was arrested and charged over the anti-Semitic firebomb and graffiti attack in Woollahra on December 11.

Mr Marshall is also in custody, facing unrelated weapons and drug offences, to which he has pleaded not guilty.

On January 21, Just two days after the caravan was reported to authorities, police raided the pair’s Liverpool apartment and seized their vehicle.

The unit door appeared to have been damaged by police gaining entry and a CCTV camera on the balcony appeared to have been disconnected, according to The Daily Telegraph.

Neither Ms Farrugia or Mr Marshall have been charged in relation to the caravan found at Dural.

NSW Police have since revealed that the abandoned vehicle contained enough Powergel explosives to create a 40-metre blast zone.

On Thursday, NSW Police and Premier Chris Minns defended the decision not to disclose the discovery earlier.

Mr Minns said withholding the incident was “the right decision” because it was the subject of a “serious police clandestine investigation”.

NSW Police Commissioner Karen Webb said its leak to the media had “compromised” ongoing investigations into what could have been a “mass casualty event”.

“The fact this information is now in the public domain has compromised our investigation and been detrimental to some of the strategies we may have used,” she said.

The caravan case has not been officially deemed a terrorism incident but is now being investigated by the Joint Counter Terrorism Team due to the amount of explosives involved and gravity of the alleged offending.

“I often get asked — and I want to clarify — about whether or not there needs to be a declaration of a terrorism event,” Commissioner Webb said.

“That relates to whether there’s a need for additional powers. That is separate to the issue of whether police can charge with terrorism offences.”

So far 10 people, including Ms Farrugia, have been charged under the NSW Police Strike Force Pearl which is investigating the escalating anti-Semitic crimes across the state.

Deputy Commissioner Hudson said it appeared increasingly likely that some of the recent anti-Semitic incidents were linked.

“We believe that some of (the attacks) are being orchestrated by others ... we haven’t identified any of the individuals with any specific ideology that would cause them to commit these acts,” he said.

“And that indicates to us that they are being orchestrated in some manner.

“We have identified links between certain jobs which gives us some indication there is a level of co-ordination above those perpetrating the offences.”

There were three more incidents of anti-Semitic vandalism in Sydney’s eastern suburbs on Wednesday night including graffiti on a house next to a Jewish school that said “you f..king Jews”.

Mr Minns said the NSW Government and police would leave “no stone unturned” in investigating these crimes.

“There are some terrible people in our community, I’m ashamed to say it — but that’s the truth,” he said.

“Bad morals, bad ethics, bad people that will commit these acts, but Australians stand united against this appalling racism.

“No stone will be left unturned or upturned in order to catch individuals who are responsible for these activities.”

Last week AFP Commissioner Reece Kershaw said there was “no doubt there is an escalation of anti-Semitism in Australia”.

Kershaw revealed that the AFP established Special Operation Avalite last month to target high-harm anti-Semitism which, as of last week, had received 166 reports and was investigating 15 serious allegations.

Mr Kershaw said the AFP was also investigating whether overseas actors were paying criminals-for-hire to carry out the attacks.

“All lines of inquiry are open to the investigations — including what anonymising technology, such as dedicated encrypted communication devices, have been used to commit these crimes,” he said.

“We are looking into whether any young people are involved in carrying out some of these crimes and if they have been radicalised online and encouraged to commit anti-Semitic acts.”

Counterterrorism expert Michael Zekulin said that while it was hard to draw a concrete line between the anti-Semitic material circulating online and acts of real-world violence, the intensification of such content across social media and gaming platforms was likely desensitising young Australians to hateful rhetoric and behaviour.

“From a desensitising perspective, absolutely. If you see this stuff plastered everywhere, it can’t be all that bad right?” he said.

“It becomes normalised and it’s often coded or couched in humour like memes.”

Dr Zekulin, from the Australian National University in Canberra, said a “confluence” of bad actors with different agendas were taking advantage of the current polarised and inflamed climate in Australia.

“We have those anti-Israel people talking about what’s happening in the Middle East,” he said.

“Then you have right-wing extremists who couldn’t care less about that but who see it as an opportunity to pile on and resuscitate those old tropes Jewish people.

“Then throw in the Australia day debate and the division here about multiculturalism and immigration ... it’s a confluence of a whole bunch of things.”

Dr Zekulin said that despite their skill, law enforcement agencies need the public’s help.

“It’s the eyes and ears multiplier which we always talk about with terrorism and extremism, which is, no matter how good police and intelligence agencies are, they have limited resources,” he said,

“It’s about having these discussions with our kids about being safe online and what they may come across online.

“The bottom line is education and raising awareness about online radicalisation so that the community is more alert and proactive about it.”