Australia hits 28 million people but record-low birth rates spark fears for the nation’s future

Something big happened this morning while most Australians were sleeping.

Just before dawn, Australia’s population officially ticked over to 28 million people.

By lunchtime, the figure had already climbed by hundreds more.

Yet behind that milestone lies a demographic paradox worrying experts around the world: Australians are having fewer children than ever before and, without action, the nation is heading towards a future where deaths outnumber births.

Despite the population continuing to grow – bolstered largely by migration – Australia’s fertility rate is forecast to fall to a record low of just 1.42 children per woman by the end of this month. That is well below the 2.1 births per woman needed to replace the population from one generation to the next.

Leading demographer Liz Allen says the declining birth rate reflects a “clusterf... of policy failure”.

“It is a cluster of policy issues that have the nation at a tipping point,” she said.

“We have multiple crises that have not been adequately dealt with for generations to the point where alarms are going off and, if we don’t act promptly, there is no turning back.”

The Australian National University senior lecturer said Australians were increasingly weighing up housing costs, job security, gender inequality and climate concerns before deciding whether to have children.

Far from being selfish or materialistic, she said many young adults were making deeply considered decisions about the world their future children would inherit.

“People are taking action by way of their reproductive organs,” she said.

“We hear young people are hedonistic, that they’re only thinking of themselves, that they’d rather take an overseas holiday, but they’re actually not.

“They’re thinking and weighing the pros and cons of what tomorrow looks like and what any prospective children might be coming into.”

Dr Allen said the key question was whether Australians were having fewer children because they wanted to, or because circumstances were preventing them from having the families they desired.

“It’s not a problem if fertility declines because of choice,” she said.

“But if that choice is constrained, then we have a problem.”

She described Australia’s fertility rate as more than just a statistic.

“It’s like a barometer of hope,” she said.

“Children are essentially the ultimate marker of hope that tomorrow will be a better day, that tomorrow will be worth living.

“We’ve got a situation where fear has overtaken and we’ve lost hope for tomorrow. And when you’ve lost hope, what have we got left?”

At the same time as Australians are having fewer children, they are also living longer.

The Federal Government projects Australia’s median age will rise from 38.4 years to 40.2 years within the next decade, while the number of Australians aged 85 and over is expected to more than triple by the mid-2060s.

The demographic consequences could be profound.

Australia’s tax system relies heavily on income tax paid by working-age Australians. As the population ages and fewer workers support more retirees, governments will face increasingly difficult decisions about how to fund health care, aged care and pensions.

“We will have to learn to do more with less,” Dr Allen said.

“Tough decisions will have to be made around how we fund the function of the nation.”

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics projections, deaths are expected to outnumber births from around 2054. Population growth would continue because of migration, but Australia’s natural increase would disappear.

Countries including Japan, Italy, Greece, South Korea and Thailand are already experiencing population decline.

Not everyone sees the trend as cause for alarm.

ANU’s Professor Robert Breunig said falling fertility was a global phenomenon.

“It’s happening in rich countries and poor countries,” he said.

“There’s a few countries, like the Philippines, Nigeria and maybe Pakistan, where it’s not happening quite as quickly, but even in those countries it’s falling.”

Prof Breunig, the national president of the Economic Society of Australia, said evidence from around the world suggested policies designed to encourage people to have more children had only modest effects.

“OECD research suggests that a combination of generous childcare benefits, generous parental leave and generous financial support for families with children has a very small impact on fertility,” he said.

“It might move your fertility from 1.4 to 1.5, but that’s a pretty expensive package of programs.”

The economist, who migrated to Australia 28 years ago, said he was less concerned than some experts about Australia’s long-term prospects.

“I think it’s something Australia doesn’t need to worry about,” he said.

“We have such a good track record of attracting high-quality migrants and assimilating migrants into Australian society.”

He also pointed to Australia’s compulsory superannuation system as a major advantage over many ageing countries.

“A lot of the problems that countries like France are facing are because of generous retirement systems and a declining number of workers to fund those systems, and we don’t have that problem,” he said.

While economists debate the fiscal consequences, others say the falling birth rate reveals deeper social challenges.

Philosopher Luara Ferracioli – who researches parenthood, family life and immigration – said many women were having fewer children than they would ideally like.

“So yes, people are making a choice here, but it is a constrained choice because of the high costs around housing, childcare and outside-school-hours care,” she said.

The Associate Professor at the University of Sydney, said Australian families often found themselves trapped between the demands of work and parenting.

“It is clear that school hours are not fit for purpose,” she said.

“We have many outside-school-hours-care deserts in Australia where parents simply can’t access those services.

“This puts parents in a bind. They can’t afford to raise a child if they don’t work nine to five, but they can’t work nine to five because they have a school-aged child.”

She said gender expectations were also part of the story.

“I certainly know women who would have had more children if they felt that their partner would equally share the mental load, domestic work and caring work,” she said.

“Policies that create an incentive for men to take parental leave are an important part of the puzzle.”

Associate Professor Ferracioli said many prospective parents were also questioning what sort of future awaited their children.

“Many citizens are acting as responsible prospective parents by looking around and concluding that because of climate change, AI, cost of living pressures and global conflict, they cannot be confident their child will enjoy the opportunities to flourish that they themselves enjoyed,” she said.

“The hesitation on the part of many young citizens may stem not only from financial costs, but from the moral weight of procreation itself.”

She urged policymakers to remember that pregnancy itself carries significant costs and risks.

“I think it is important that we also remember that pregnancy is both costly and risky,” she said.

“So when it comes to addressing declining fertility rates, it is important that policymakers remember that women are already a socially disadvantaged group in society.

“The costs and risks of pregnancy are in fact higher than the cultural celebration of pregnancy would have us believe.”

Despite her concerns, Allen said Australia still had time to avoid the demographic crises unfolding elsewhere.

“We should learn from history and work out how to innovate our way out of this and that will necessarily mean reform,” she said.

“Australia has within its capability and within its gift to reverse the instability and insecurity of tomorrow.

“Now let’s see some action.”