Australia weather: El Nino, Tough bushfire season expected across Australia as spring arrives on Tuesday

Australia is in for a tough bushfire season, as a combination of below-average winter rainfall and above-average fuel loads mark the first day of spring on Tuesday.

Bushfire season

Bushfire season is also locked and loaded to start earlier in all states and territories as spring begins, including a large part of the NT, according to Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council CEO Rob Webb.

There’s a “heightened risk” of fire across northern and southeastern NSW, south-east Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts Western Australia, Victoria, and South Australia, as well as a majority of the Northern Territory.

“(The risk is) driven by a combination of dry conditions in the east and increased fuel loads through parts of central and northern Australia,” Mr Webb said.

“While some areas are facing an elevated risk of fire this spring, bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook.

“The variety of risk factors across different regions reinforces the need for communities to understand their local conditions and prepare early.”

Spring begins

The Bureau of Meteorology has reported El Nino is gathering strength across the Pacific, which could see a “very strong” weather event as summer begins across the south-east of Australia.

However, temperatures are expected to be mild across our major population centres for the first day of spring.

New South Wales will experience a chilly start to spring, before temperatures spike throughout the day — Sydney will see a sunny high of 28C on Tuesday.

Victoria will be treated to “warm” and “windy” conditions across the state, before conditions cool off and become cloudy in the evening. Melbourne’s temperature will peak at 22C, with rain expected in the evening.

Queensland will be partly cloudy to start spring, and sporadic wet weather is expected across the Sunshine Coast, Central Coast, and tropical North Coast. Brisbane will see a 24C, partly cloudy maximum.

South Australia will also be warm and windy, as maximum temperatures peak in the mid 20s across the south and into the 30s in the north. Some showers are expected, and Adelaide will peak at a rainy 22C.

Showers will be scattered across Western Australia in the morning, although temperatures will become “very settled” and will be heating up in the state’s north. Perth’s maximum will bring a party cloudy 19C.

The Northern Territory will be “bright and sunny” for the first day of spring, to mark the start of a gradual humidity increase as wet season begins. Darwin will see a hefty maximum of 34C.

Mild and windy conditions are expected across Tasmania, as a sunny morning is taken over by cloudy and rainy conditions. Hobart’s maximum will be 19C.

Rainfall down

After a relatively dry start to September, rainfall will be sporadic across the country throughout spring according to BOM climatologist Lynette Bettio.

“For spring overall, above average rainfall is likely for much of the western half of Australia while parts of the south and east, are more likely to be drier than average,” Dr Bettio said.

“There’s a high chance of spring rainfall reaching at least 50 to 200 mm across most of the country, except in some inland areas.

“The first significant rains of the northern Australian wet season are likely to be earlier than usual for most of Western Australia and adjacent parts of the Northern Territory and later than usual for the Territory’s Top End and eastern parts of Queensland.”

The start of spring will also see warmer overnight temperatures across Australia.

“Both daytime and night-time temperatures during spring are very likely to be above average across much of Australia,” Dr Bettio said.

“There is an increased chance of unusually warm spring days across the south while much of the country is likely to experience unusually warm spring nights.”