'Daunting': Richard Marles says China's nuclear desire must spark a call to arms

Arms control must be bolstered as China rapidly pursues nuclear expansion and the grim possibility of nuclear weapons spreading globally looms, the defence minister will tell Asia’s top security summit.

In an address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Richard Marles is expected to call for the arms control framework to be strengthened to keep up with the growing risks and advances in technology.

“China’s decision to pursue rapid nuclear modernisation and expansion, which aims in part to reach parity with or surpass the United States, is another reason the future of strategic arms control must be revitalised,” he will say on Saturday.

“That is a difficult and daunting project.”

Mr Marles will say the assumption that the need for strategic arms control ended with the Cold War has proved “spectacularly inaccurate”.

“The landmark treaties that defined that era of arms control ... are just as relevant today as they were decades ago,” he will tell the session about managing regional proliferation risks.

“As imperfect as they are, strengthening transparency, compliance and risk reduction is key to making them work today.”

The annual gathering convenes the region’s defence ministers and senior officials, and typically provides a meeting point for representatives from the US and China to hold high-level talks.

But for the first time since 2019, Beijing will not be sending its defence minister to the summit.

Pointing to Russia’s previous threats to use nuclear weapons following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Mr Marles will warn of the “grim, potentially imminent” scenario of global proliferation as states seek security in an age of imperial ambition.

The defence minister will meet with his Japanese and American counterparts for a trilateral defence ministers meeting, with the last held in Darwin in November 2024.

Mr Marles will attend talks in the evening that will include the Philippines, in addition to the US and Japan.

He met on Friday with US counterpart Pete Hegseth, who raised the issue of increased defence spending.

The Albanese government has already committed to lift defence expenditure to about 2.3 per cent of GDP within the decade.

Mr Marles wouldn’t confirm if Mr Hegseth specifically nominated a three per cent of GDP target that the US has requested of other allies.

“We are very much up for the conversation, and the American position has been clear, and it’s understandable, and that’s a conversation that we will continue to have with the US,” he told the ABC.

In brief remarks made before their meeting, Mr Hegseth described the relationship with Australia as a “partnership as strong and robust as it’s ever been, and as important considering the issues we face in the region and the world”.