Experts warn Iran conflict will have grim outlook on Aussie airfares

Aviation experts are warning Aussies with plans to travel to Europe any time in the next five months to reconsider their getaways following major disruptions in international air traffic lanes.

Constant bombing and rocket attacks across several Middle Eastern countries have resulted in the near-complete closure of several key commercial flight paths since the United States and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend.

Chairman of Avlaw Consulting and former head of Safety and Regulation at Qantas Professor Ron Bartsch said the conflict had created precarious conditions for global air travel, which could persist for months.

“When there is a restriction on the use of airspace, sometimes it can be as a result of natural causes like volcanic eruptions, but this situation now is so much more complicated and more concerning from an airline point of view because it’s not only the airspace which has been restricted, it’s entire flight hubs,” Professor Bartsch said.

Flight hubs are major receivers of air traffic which typically service long-haul travel between major global destinations, like Changi International Airport in Singapore and Dubai Airport in the UAE.

Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi are three major flight hubs which have either partially or completely cancelled commercial flights as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate.

“If it was purely just the airspace being restricted, then airlines can reroute their flights and divert from those areas as they have done with Ukraine air space for the length of the war, but situations where hubs are involved can cause real problems, because aircraft primarily from Australia haven’t got the ability to fly directly from Australia to Europe. That’s why they have to go and land via these hubs in the Middle East,” Professor Bartsch said.

“Out of all the peripheral countries that have been affected by this, Australian travellers have probably been more affected because, particularly in the last two decades, Australia has used the Middle East as its primary way of reaching Europe,” he said.

“What’s going to happen now is that obviously Qantas and Virgin’s sharing arrangements will try to deviate more towards other alternate routes through Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong and the Philippines in order to reach Europe.”

“The longer this military operation goes on means airfares will increase accordingly. The cost of aviation fuel is going to increase and also because the number of flights will be restricted through supply and demand … that’s going to have a knock-on effect to Australian travellers for at least the next four to five months I’d say.”

More to come.