Overseas migration falls but still fuelling higher than expected population growth in latest stats

Australia’s population is forecast to increase despite births set to hit a record low and the Federal Government claiming it has cut back on overseas migration.

In 2024-25 there were another 416,000 Australians — that’s expected to decline to 362,000 this financial year, according to figures in the 2025 Population Statement released on Friday.

The data also showed Melbourne and Sydney are both on track to hit populations of more than eight million by 2065.

Net international migration was still the main driver for population growth, with 311,100 more people coming to the country than leaving it in 2024-25. In comparison 105,400 people were added through natural increase, with births outpacing deaths.

International migration is significantly down, from a net 428,700 increase the year prior. It’s also well below the peak of 556,000 in the 12 months to September 2023.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said migration was expected to continue to fall over coming years after a post-pandemic peak, and take overall population growth with it.

“(This) confirms that net overseas migration has come in lower than previously forecast for 2024-25 and is close to half the post-COVID peak,” he said.

Amid ongoing debate over migration levels and an apparent rise in support for anti-immigration policies and political parties, NSW Premier Chris Minns said newly arrived migrants were often the most proud of Australia.

“Provided people come to Australia and love this country, they believe in the fundamentals of its characteristics, in particular democracy, the rule of law, respect for women, respect for people that don’t have the same sexuality as you,” he said at a press conference on Friday.

“Yes, if people are signed up to what modern Australia is all about, I don’t have a problem with that.

“The vast majority of people who come to this country, particularly new immigrants, are some of the most patriotic people that you can meet, precisely because they know how great this country is and they’re desperate to be members of our community.

“We need to foster that, speak about it more, have a joint mission, have a joint understanding of what the project of Australia is all about.”

Despite overall growth in the population, Australia’s fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.45 children per woman and is tipped to fall even further this year.

Dr Chalmers said the Government had worked hard to adjust policies to population growth and manage migration levels.

“The Albanese Government is rolling out policies to ease pressure on families and make it easier for people to have children if they want to, including through the new 3 Day Guarantee for early childhood education and care and expanding and enhancing paid parental leave,” he said.

Western Australia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing State with a population growth rate of 1.8 per cent in 2025-26, down from 2.2 per cent in 2024-25. Victoria, Queensland, and NSW are expected to maintain growth above one per cent.

At the other end of the scale, Tasmania is forecast to grow just 0.1 per cent, and have deaths outnumber births by 2028-29 — the first State or Territory to do so. South Australia is also forecast to follow by the 2060s.

The projections show populations increasingly confined to capital cities, with nearly three-quarters of Australians estimated to live in big cities by 2065, up from 68 per cent now.

Australia is also expected to get older in the coming decades. The current median age of 38.4 is expected to rise to 40 in a decade’s time and nearly 44 by 2065-66, set to exacerbate pressure on already faltering aged care and health systems.