Ticket sellers, receptionists and telemarketers have most to fear from artificial intelligence

Ticket sellers are the jobs most likely to be eliminated by artificial intelligence, followed by receptionists, keyboard operators, call centre workers, office support workers, switchboard operators, telemarketers, library assistants, human resource clerks and payroll officers, a top economics firm says.

Deloitte Access Economics has identified 37 occupations facing disruption by AI, including 24 clerical and administration roles, seven sales positions and three in management.

In the United States, junior jobs are already being eliminated by AI software, the firm said, as computers take over work that requires little judgement, empathy or interpersonal skills.

“Early evidence in the US suggests that junior employment levels have declined within firms that have been bigger adopters of AI compared to those where AI is playing less of a role,” Monday’s report said.

“And that early-career workers have experienced a decline in employment across AI-exposed occupations, even after controlling for firm-level characteristics.”

In further bad news for Australian workers, Deloitte forecast hiring would weaken next year as government hiring slows and inflation restricts the Reserve Bank of Australia’s ability to cut interest rates.

Reserve Bank conundrum

Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens said employment growth in the six months ended October 31 had almost halved to 81,500 people compared with the six months ended April 30, when 151,300 were hired.

Rising unemployment and inflation could be a problem for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has failed to keep prices under its 2 to 3 per cent target.

“With inflation once again outside of the target range, the macroeconomic landing is looking a little harder than first thought,” Mr Rumbens said.

John Simon, the RBA’s former head of economic research, said there was a risk that Reserve Bank would be too slow to react to rising unemployment as it focused on inflation.

“The playbook is the same,” he wrote in an opinion piece for The Australian Financial Review on Monday. “Move slowly. Extend the horizon. Trust that circumstances will co-operate.

“The RBA review changed the bank’s governance structure, its communication practices and the wording of its mandate. It changed everything but the one thing that matters: the institution’s appetite for uncomfortable actions.”

Stephen Koukoulas, who was an economics adviser to former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard, said the RBA had a history of waiting too long to act, and he feared this would happen again with unemployment.

“The RBA is no longer pre-emptive - it waits usually too long before adjusting rates to meet changing economic conditions and in waiting, there are costs to economic growth, jobs and probably some productivity,” he wrote on LinkedIn.

“And then, when the data and economic trends do not fit its biases, the RBA looks for reasons to downplay and even ignore that news. Many of those reasons are sketchy, appearing wrong at the time and certainly in hindsight.”

Peak jobless

The Reserve Bank adjusted its forecasts in early November to predict unemployment would peak at 4.4 per cent until December 2027, having previously forecast a 4.3 per cent jobless rate in August that would last for at least two more years.

While unemployment in October dropped again to 4.3 per cent, down from a four-year high of 4.5 per cent, headline inflation in the year to September was 3.2 per cent, or a level above the RBA’s 2 to 3 per cent target.

Governor Michele Bullock expressed surprise at higher inflation on Melbourne Cup day after her board left the cash rate on hold at 3.6 per cent for the second consecutive meeting.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will on Wednesday publish comprehensive monthly inflation data for October. This inaugural data replaces the long-standing quarterly series dating back to 1948 and the post-COVID monthly indicator.

The Commonwealth Bank, Australia’s biggest home lender, is forecasting a 3.6 per cent annual inflation rate. This is higher than an RBA forecast of a 3.3 per cent level for the year to December.

Senior economist Trent Saunders said accelerating inflation would stop the RBA from cutting interest rates soon.

“With inflation expected to still sit in the top half of the target band by the end of 2026, we expect the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold over the course of the year,” he said.