RBA interest rates: Macquarie joins big four banks in tipping more rate pain by Christmas to fight inflation

Macquarie has joined its big four bank rivals in predicting Australia’s sticky inflation will force the Reserve Bank to inflict even more interest pain on homeowners before Christmas.

Chief economist Ric Deverell is tipping the central bank will act at its next meeting on September 28 and 29 by lifting the cash rate to a near 15-year high of 4.6 per cent.

A hike of 25 basis points from the current rate of 4.35 per cent — where it has remained since May — would take it beyond the 4.5 per cent the rate reached in November 2011.

That would add $121 to monthly repayments on an average, new mortgage of $731,000.

Mr Deverell said the RBA had run a “monetary experiment” in recent year by increasing rates less than other central banks during the COVID panic as it fought to hold onto part of the fall in unemployment that occurred during the pandemic.

“In the first half of 2025, it looked like the experiment had worked, with underlying inflation returning to the middle of the target band, allowing the RBA to claim victory by easing policy by 75 basis points,” he said, according to The Australian.

“However, over the second half of 2025 both growth and inflation rebounded, forcing a reversal of the earlier cuts as the RBA acted to slow growth.

“The 75 basis points of tightening earlier this year is working, with growth in recent quarters below trend.

“However, with unemployment still around three-quarters of a percentage point below the pre-COVID level, the RBA now seems to feel that output remains above the economy’s potential, suggesting that more needs to be done to bring inflation back to target.”

Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and NAB also expect the RBA to move higher on rates before Christmas.

RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser warned in an ABC interview on Tuesday night that it would take years to fully get on top of the post-pandemic surge in inflation — an issue he knows Australians are “furious” about.

Dr Hauser acknowledged the weight of higher costs of living and interest rates but said inflation was the nation’s biggest problem despite the economy doing well on other fronts.

“When people go to the supermarket every week, they look at the price of the goods they’re buying, they compare them to where they were a few years ago and they say, ‘Hell, what’s going on here’,” he said.

“That is a very lasting and pervasive issue that is a function of the pick-up in inflation after COVID and will take years for us to fully resolve.”

Westpac on Tuesday changed its expectations and now tips the RBA will hike rates again in November following the release of September-quarter inflation data in late October.

CBA and ANZ are also tipping a November rise,, while Macquarie has joined NAB is forecasting an increase this month.

The Reserve’s chief economist, Sarah Hunter, said on Tuesday another rate hike was a real possibility given domestic factors were pushing prices higher and worrying the RBA’s nine-member monetary policy board.

The Reserve Bank’s three hikes in February, March and May have already added $354 to monthly repayments and another hike would mean borrowers with a new loan would be paying $475 more than they did at the start of this year.

That would add up to $5700 more a year in mortgage servicing costs, compared with early 2026.