TARIFF MAN: America First is looking like America Only, and that’s bad for the alliance

Australians will be united in hoping and wishing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese the best in securing an exemption from Donald Trump’s blanket 25 per cent tariffs on all US steel and aluminium imports.

For Australia, the stakes are high — the exports were worth around $377 million in 2023. But there would also be damage that’s impossible to price if the prime minister, whom the US President praised as a “very fine man,” fails.

The signals from the man himself are mixed. On one hand, Mr Trump said he had agreed to consider an exemption noting the trade surplus the US has with Australia, despite saying earlier: “It’s 25 per cent without exceptions or exemptions.”

It’s a well-established fact that Mr Trump changes his mind and that allowing him to strike what he believes is a good deal can prevail over ideological consistency.

But there are genuine reasons to fear that Australia will not be so lucky in obtaining the exemptions that former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull successfully secured during Mr Trump’s first tenure.

The main one is the two different reasons being cited by the Administration for imposing the tariffs in the first place.

While Mr Trump repeatedly bemoaned the US being “ripped off” by other countries who sell the US more than they buy from it, the official reasoning provided in the White House statements and proclamations argue that the previously granted exemptions are the very problem.

“By granting exemptions to certain countries, the United States inadvertently created loopholes that were exploited by China and others with excess steel and aluminium capacity, undermining the purpose of these exemptions,” the White House said.

That statement said that China, via foreign nations, was flooding the US market with subsidised steel, depreciating local production values.

“The United States does not want to be in a position where it would be unable to meet demand for national defence and critical infrastructure in a national emergency,” the White House statement said.

Mr Trump’s proclamation also got very personal with Australia.

“Australia has disregarded its verbal commitment to voluntarily restrain its aluminium exports to a reasonable level,” it said.

Peter Navarro, the President’s chief adviser on the issue, added his two cents worth on Fox.

“Australia is just crushing, crushing — with the help of China — our aluminium sector,” Mr Navarro said.

“And the president says no more country exemptions.”

So on one hand we have a President agreeing to consider Australia’s trade deficit as cause for exemption, but all the organs of the White House stating that the exemptions are the issue, and the one granted to Australia specifically, is aiding China at the expense of US national security and jobs.

While the President’s praise for the prime minister — given Mr Albanese is one of the many Labor figures to have said unflattering things about Mr Trump — is a good sign, the ledger looks more stacked against Australia than the government may want.

It may explain why Mr Albanese appeared almost deferential to President Trump when he called his press conference on Tuesday morning to tell the public about their “constructive” 40-minute phone call.

“I presented Australia’s case for an exemption and we agreed on wording to say publicly, which is that the US President agreed that an exemption was under consideration, for — in the interests of both of our countries,” he said.

It was more than jarring to see an Australian Prime Minister fighting the country’s corner by outsourcing his talking points to his larger opponent.

Surprisingly, it was the Opposition Leader Peter Dutton who found a more confident tone and went further, warning Mr Trump that his tariffs would damage the bilateral relationship.

“I want there to be a very clear message to the Trump Administration that we don’t believe that this tariff should be put in place,” Mr Dutton said.

“If it remains in place, then I believe it will damage the relationship between the United States and Australia,” he said.

This was a welcome shift from the opposition’s approach earlier in the week which seemed aimed at laying a political trap for Mr Albanese.

“When the United States imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium in 2018, the coalition was able to work with the Trump administration to secure an exemption for Australia. What steps has Ambassador Rudd taken to secure an exemption to the tariffs announced today?” Shadow Trade Minister Kevin Hogan began Question Time on Monday.

This was a risky approach that could have backfired if continued because it undermines the Team Australia position the country demands, and that Mr Dutton rightly adopted on Tuesday after the tariffs were announced.

Secondly, it suggests that Australia is at fault for not preventing their imposition. It is not, regardless of who sits in the Lodge.

Donald Trump is determined, focused and a different sort of President this time around. He promised tariffs on the campaign trail, believing they would Make America Great Again, now he’s implementing them. Further, he is aided by staff who are far more ideological and committed to the MAGA cause than in 2016.

If Mr Trump makes good on his vow that there will be “no exemptions,” then the Australian public will be able to compare and contrast the difference in the former Coalition government’s victory in obtaining a reprieve compared to Labor’s failure.

They may conclude that there was nothing Mr Albanese could have done to save the day.

Or they might deem, as Mr Turnbull has repeatedly said, that it takes a tougher, stronger approach than the obedient tone Mr Albanese took on Tuesday to deal with a “bully” in the White House.

And they may calculate that the willingness and risk Mr Dutton took in striking a tougher tone with Mr Trump shows the Liberal Leader might be better suited to stand up for Team Australia under Trump 2.0.

But ultimately voters know the problem is not us, it’s him. Mr Trump is a president prepared to trash allies and friends, threaten and intimidate them in nostalgic pursuit of American Greatness.

The tragedy is that America First is increasingly starting to look like America Only and this would be hugely damaging to the country’s diplomatic relationships, as Mr Dutton warned.

America Only would violate the bedrock Australia-US alliance — one that has been supported with Australian lives and blood — a commitment that the Americans are first to highlight.

“Australians and Americans have fought side by side in every major US military conflict of the past century, including World Wars I and II, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and in present-day operations against violent extremist organisations like Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and their global affiliates,” the US State Department’s fact sheet on the bilateral relationship states.

Australia pulls its weight in other ways, too. Winemakers, grain farmers and crayfish producers have stood on the front line to defy Chinese economic coercion. The first massive cheque, worth half a billion US dollars, has been paid to the US as a down payment for our nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS.

Australia is part of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing agreement, is a treaty ally and at the end of the day has always behaved as America’s good mate.

So while the understandable temptation is to approach the Trump Administration with caution, the current tentative stance will not be sustainable if there is no tariff reprieve.

Four years of an America Only policy will see former Labor prime minister Paul Keating and foreign ministers Bob Carr and Gareth Evans claim vindication for their anti-American, often pro-China, views.

America’s friends in Australia will find it more and more difficult to rebut the questioning that will grow, asking if it’s so wise to throw our lot in with such an unstable ally.

And the irony would be that in trying to Make America Great Again, MAGA foreign policy would only bolster the PRC.

As Democrat Congressman Joe Courtney put it: “Australia is a key strategic ally for our country.”

“What we’re seeing is a completely needless, almost insult to the people of Australia by raising tariffs of Australian products coming into this country.”

No one envies Mr Albanese’s pre-election diplomatic tightrope that he is forced to walk as he tries to secure a concession Australia should not have to ask for.

If Trump proves benevolent, the prime minister will rightly claim vindication for the nervous timidity that seemed on display after his Presidential phone call, but if he does not, voters will justifiably wonder if a stronger hand might need to have been played.