THE WASHINGTON POST: Glencore set for Sydney Ddebut in test of mining giant’s allure

Glencore Plc. begins trading on the Australian Securities Exchange on Wednesday after a listing that didn’t involve selling new shares or raising funds, in a test of the company’s ability to attract cash from a fresh pool of capital.

The introduction of the CHESS Depositary Interests, each representing one London-listed share, will give the mining and trading giant exposure to Australia’s vast pension industry. For investors, it will provide a proxy to invest in copper, which has surged over the past year on expectations of growing demand from data centers, power grids and renewables. Notably, the CDIs don’t provide franking credits on Glencore dividends.

For Glencore, the listing is an opportunity to narrow its valuation gap compared with some diversified mining peers. Rio Tinto Group has at times traded at a premium in Sydney versus London, a disparity that helped fuel an ultimately unsuccessful activist campaign to unify the company’s structure. The stock could draw interest as Australia has few large copper stocks beyond Rio Tinto and BHP Group.

“Aussie investors really want to get access to copper,” said Marc Jocum, senior ETF strategist at Global X Management. “Glencore only makes about a third of their revenue at the moment from copper, but they want to increase that to about 50% of their earnings mix overall. I think that there is appetite for any company that wants to get access to the copper story.”

Unlike in some markets, including the NYSE, depositary interests can qualify for Australian equity indexes. Glencore is targeting inclusion in the S&P/ASX 100, a move that could eventually attract passive investment. The Australian CDIs would need to reach about A$5.5 billion ($3.8 billion) in value, according to Betashares.

Index inclusion could be key to drawing investment from Australia’s A$4.8 trillion pensions industry, locally known as superannuation. The nation’s largest pension fund, A$430 billion AustralianSuper, in August described the listing as good for the local stock exchange and investors. But it’s unclear how many Australian super funds - particularly those with restrictions on coal exposure - will be willing to buy the stock.

Glencore produces both thermal coal, burned for power, and metallurgical coal, used in steelmaking. Many major institutions, including Australia’s superannuation sector, have reduced or eliminated coal exposure in recent years amid pressure from members and tighter climate mandates. Glencore says the global energy crisis has made investors more pragmatic.

“Australian superannuation funds should be asking how a holding in one of the world’s largest thermal coal exporters fits their own climate policies, and what they will do as shareholders to hold Glencore accountable to emissions reduction targets,” said Naomi Hogan, head of engagement and sector strategy at the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility.

The listing will offer a new investment target for Australian investors as the country’s tepid primary market is reeling from the fiasco of Firmus Grid Ltd.’s failed blockbuster initial public offering. Still, dealmaking has begun to pick up, with IPO volumes reaching a five-year high in the fiscal year ending June. While resources companies continue to make up most of Australia’s IPOs, the miner’s ASX debut defies a recent trend of AI-linked mega-deals in both the local market and across the world.

That trade, however, has run into headwinds as investors grow increasingly skeptical of high valuations and future earnings. Glencore could provide an alternative just as the broad artificial intelligence trade is showing signs of investor fatigue.

The strength of demand may take weeks to emerge. Glencore is relying on London shareholders converting their stock into Australian CDIs, with the amount transferred helping determine its eligibility and weighting in local indexes.

“Australian investors are savvy and will need to look for reassurances that they’re not just buying a hot trend,” Betashares senior investment strategist Cameron Gleeson said by phone. “They want to ensure that a company that is expected to grow quickly can actually show demonstrated capacity to do so.”

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