Why the family Christmas lunch is the most dangerous place to get property advice

Between December and January, property "hot takes" come thick and fast, as families and friends gather for Christmas and New Year celebrations.

Someone's convinced prices are about to crash. Someone else insists you must buy now "before interest rates rise in the new year". An uncle swears Brisbane is the only market worth touching. A parent suggests buying the old family unit because "it's close to the city."

Everyone has an opinion. And most of them are delivered with absolute confidence and authority - especially from older generations who have "done well" in property.

As a property strategist, this is the busiest and most emotionally charged time of year I see. It's also when Australians are most vulnerable to bad property advice.

The holidays create the perfect storm: heightened emotion, comparison and time pressure. Combined with our low national financial literacy rate (around 45 per cent), it's easy to see how these opinions and speculation can drive Aussies to poor decision-making when it comes to property.

At the same time, many Australians don't feel equipped, or entitled, to seek professional advice. There's a common assumption that property advice is only for the wealthy, or that it costs thousands of dollars to get help, which simply isn't true.

The irony is that people deciding they "can't afford" advice and relying on 'free' opinions from family, friends, headlines or social media, will end up spending in excess of hundreds of thousands of dollars on property based on this surface-level 'analysis'.

I recently had a client ready to buy a well-researched, well-located property in Victoria when a friend rang to warn them off. They'd heard Victoria's land tax would cost them $30,000 a year and insisted South Australia was the smarter option.

South Australia may have higher thresholds and lower land tax, but it also has limited population growth in many areas, meaning long-term capital growth will likely be slower. And when I ran the numbers, that Victorian property's land tax was actually closer to $2,500 annually.

The behavioural gap that shapes outcomes

Over time, I've noticed a clear behavioural gap between buyers with high financial capability and those without.

People with higher financial capability don't necessarily know more about property, but they know what they don't know. Doctors and lawyers regularly say to me, "I'm excellent in my field, but I would never assume I know property better than someone working in the field." They understand the value of outsourcing expertise.

Those with lower financial capability often feel they need to do everything themselves. They try to save money by avoiding professional advice, even though that decision can cost them far more in the long run when it's based on incomplete information and emotion.

The risk in taking well-meaning family advice

In my early 20s, while working in funds management, I followed the numbers and decided to buy a house in Yarraville. My mother told me no one would cross the Westgate Bridge and that I was better off buying an apartment in St Kilda because it was closer to the city and therefore "a safer investment". It was also closer to where they lived at the time. It felt familiar and sensible, so I followed her advice, but financially, it was the wrong asset. The apartment didn't grow the way a house in Yarraville would have, and I outgrew it quickly. I see versions of this story every week.

Family advice is often emotional, not strategic. Parents recommend what worked for them decades ago, without accounting for how markets, demographics and lending conditions have changed. They suggest buying with siblings or cousins without understanding how that can restrict future borrowing capacity.

Just because something worked for your parents doesn't mean it's a strong strategy today - or that it's suitable for your specific circumstances.

Why timing the market rarely works

Another Christmas-table favourite is market prediction. Interest rates will fall. Or rise. Or stay the same. If you look back at predictions about the Reserve Bank's decisions over the past five years, almost all of them were wrong.

Trying to time the market is a fool's game. History shows that buyers who focus on quality assets and hold them over time consistently outperform those who wait for the "perfect" moment. Anyone who bought well-located property 50 years ago didn't lose money, provided they held onto it.

The three filters every buyer should apply to any "hot tip"

Before acting on any advice - whether it comes from family, friends or strangers online, buyers should apply three simple filters.

First: Where are the numbers?

What data supports this advice? Not anecdotes - accurate, reputable numbers.

Second: Does it hold up over time?

Run the data back 10 or 20 years, not just the last five. Recent performance alone can be misleading. Queensland's growth over the past three years looks very different when viewed across two decades.

Third: What drives future growth?

Look at household income growth, population type, volatility and sustainability. Is growth driven by long-term employment and wages - or a short-term project that may disappear?

Cutting through the noise in 2026

As we head into another year of uncertainty, the most important thing buyers can do is simplify. Follow the data. Accept that not everyone will agree with your decision. If your strategy is evidence-based and aligned with your long-term goals, you don't need universal approval - especially not from the Christmas table.

This festive season, enjoy the debates, but be selective about which voices you listen to. Your future self will thank you.

Anissa Cavallo is a property expert and adviser from Eda Property empowering and educating Australians to achieve financial freedom through property.