AARON PATRICK: If Andrew Hastie believes the Secret Harbour by-election is so important, why is he AWOL?

Liberal MP Andrew Hastie this week lavished praise on the party’s candidate in the Secret Harbour by-election, former submariner Ryan Robertson, and repeated his argument Western Australia’s official Opposition should aim to win a poll widely seen as a Labor-One Nation contest.

Which raised an awkward question for the shadow industry minister: if he is so committed to victory, why has he chosen to disappear from a State seat located almost entirely within his Federal electorate of Canning?

Two Liberals helping run the campaign say they have only seen Mr Hastie in Secret Harbour once, and that was at the official campaign launch on August 1.

Mr Hastie’s office did not respond when asked about his commitment to a by-election that he said as recently as Thursday should be a priority for his party. “So I want the Liberals to do the best as we can, and we should be trying to break that tape and come first,” Mr Hastie told 2GB.

As the handsome local MP and Australia’s second-most famous SAS veteran, Mr Hastie should be a vote winner in the working class electorate. Instead, Liberals believe he is keeping his distance from the Secret Harbour campaign, in contrast with Federal Liberal MPs such as Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith, to minimise any personal blame or responsibility if One Nation emerges victorious from Saturday’s poll.

Important decision

Liberals who have manned booths over the past two weeks report strong interest in One Nation, but say the poll is too close to predict if the populist anti-immigration party can take the Labor stronghold. Over the past week the betting odds have moved further in Labor’s favour, possibly in response to Anthony Albanese’s promise to preserve Western Australia’s allocation of the goods and services tax.

Whoever wins, the by-election has highlighted what may be the most-important decision facing Liberal leaders today: should they treat One Nation as the enemy or a rival?

Mr Hastie — whose expressed beliefs are remarkably aligned with Pauline Hanson’s — has attracted much attention over the past two months for his strident opposition towards One Nation, which he often expresses in military-like language.

Liberal leader Angus Taylor has dropped his initially conciliatory language and now declares a One Nation government would deliver an “eternity of pain”.

Others are less hostile. West Australian Liberal leader Basil Zempilas describes One Nation’s rise “as an opportunity, not a threat”. He sees a Labor loss in Secret Harbour as taking the Liberal Party a seat closer to power in a Parliament in which it only has 12 of 96 seats.

The Liberal Party has placed One Nation third on its how-to-vote cards. One Nation has put the Liberal candidate fifth. Suggesting that it sees an opportunity to win over Liberals, at least temporarily, One Nation’s cards use a royal blue similar to the Liberals’ colour of choice alongside One Nation’s signature safety orange.

An overly aggressive approach by Liberals towards a party that all major polls indicate is more popular could harden One Nation’s support. At the same time, One Nation is splitting the conservative vote, creating unpredictable three-way contests, requiring money to be spent defending previously safe seats and sucking attention and donors away from the Coalition.

The political conundrum is profound, which is why the by-election in the deliciously named and previously obscure Secret Harbour has implications for November’s Victorian election, next year’s election in NSW and the Federal election, which is due by May, 2028.

Surrendering the seat?

In Secret Harbour, Liberal Party officials feel Mr Hastie has unfairly implied they are not fully committed to the campaign. “You don’t wave the white flag,” Mr Hastie told the ABC this week.

The gibe, which was perceived to be a criticism of Mr Zempilas’s “opportunity” observation, was quickly turned by the Labor Party into an election ad.

The evidence would suggest no white flag is being waved. The Liberal Party has raised $120,000 to spend on Secret Harbour, a large sum for a by-election in a seat it has never won and is unlikely to do so.

Liberal head office said on Friday that Mr Zempilas, who was in the electorate that day and intends to be there on Saturday, will have visited Secret Harbour almost 30 times during the campaign, more than other political leaders.

“Basil Zempilas has made at least 3-4 visits to the electorate each week over the six weeks of the campaign, doorknocking with Ryan, meeting local community groups and small businesses and meeting voters at pre-poll,” State director Simon Morgan said in an email.

“Similarly, WA Liberals from right across the state have come together to support Ryan, through financial contributions, attending fundraising events, helping with doorknocking and letterboxing, and standing with Ryan at pre-poll and on booths on election day.”

Those Liberals from “across the State” apparently do not include the federal MP who lives closest, Andrew Hastie.

Mr Hastie, who was recently praised by Anthony Albanese for his anti-One Nation stance, told an interviewer this week he was spending more time in a gym because he wanted to “get stacked”.

Here’s a suggestion for the former officer. Concentrate on cardio work over weights. Politics is a marathon, not a sprint, and you’ve picked enough fights with your own side.