ANDREW CARSWELL: Peter Dutton and the Coalition underestimate Anthony Albanese at their peril

It is not hard to get a chuckle from within the Liberal tent when talk turns to the performance of the Albanese Government.

It is an endless source of bemusement.

Not from any sense of triumphalism or from any belief that the Government’s woes have materialised or compounded because of the strength of the Opposition and its tactics.

More out of bewilderment.

How is it possible, they muse, that a first-term Government could fall so far short of the mark, having spent nine years in opposition plotting and planning what they would do when voters in their infinite wisdom finally gave them the keys to the kingdom?

The Government’s weak delivery and questionable competence have left many on the Opposition benches genuinely surprised — they had expected better.

And while they would never have admitted it publicly, they had mentally prepared themselves for a bleak and unglamorous two terms in Opposition obscurity, given the last and only time a government was defeated after one term was 94 years ago.

Now, they’re all smiles, as the once-unthinkable prospect of an early return to government inches a little closer to their grasp, despite the electoral maths still appearing somewhat problematic. A bridge too far maybe. But then again, they didn’t expect to be anywhere near the damn bridge.

This collective merriment about Labor’s propensity to hit every hurdle it faces is a potential landmine for the Coalition.

It is an attitude it must confront head-on and not allow to fester and infect. This is not about merely containing over-confidence, it’s about altering the mindset. Refocusing on the target.

Because heading into an election year thinking you’ll be up against the same tired, feckless and distracted opponent that you faced last year, is a road to ruin.

Looming elections, and the prospect of an inglorious first-term exit, always have a way of sharpening the mind and building discipline.

Assuming the Anthony Albanese of 2023 — or an even more diminished 2024 version — will be the same figure taking to the political ring in 2025 is a dangerous miscalculation.

He’ll be more prepared, and more determined than his opponents expect and underestimating him, based on his last two years, will be perilous.

We have already seen glimpses of this “new and improved” version in the faux campaign which kicked off the year a little earlier than voters had anticipated, or indeed wanted.

This was an inherently risky move away from political convention that states politicians should run and hide for the holiday period and only seriously put their head above the parapet after the Australia Day fireworks finally fizz out.

But Labor commenced 2025 in such a predicament, it had to hit the ground running and risk annoying the great unabashed in their wondrous holiday glow.

This move to campaign around the country paid dividends for the PM, giving him the appearance of action to push back against the previous year’s characterisation of inaction, and the ability to control the narrative for once.

And wisely, staying well within his comfort zone by sticking to infrastructure announcements where even the most haphazard of politicians would struggle to fumble over the details. Anyone can sell the merits of a road to aggrieved commuters.

There were still signs of 2024 Albo creeping into the pre-campaign events and media appearances. The unshakeable habit of bristling at journalists daring to ask tough questions.

The struggle to deliver sharp, clear political messaging, often drifting into long-winded responses and outright waffle.

And while he has taken some small steps to address the alarming rise of anti-Semitism, there still remains a clear reluctance to match appropriate action with the gravity of the crisis unfolding.

But compared to the performance horrors of the past two years, a slight improvement.

Even the backflip on an anti-Semitism National Cabinet showed signs of a shift. The Albo of 2024 would have obfuscated for weeks, determined not to let the media or Peter Dutton win the argument and force his hand. Whatever the cost.

This 2025 version is the Albanese the Coalition will need to confront, not the bumbling wanderer of the past few seasons who appeared weak, tepid and ineffectual at every turn.

It requires fiddling with the scope to set their sights on this moving target, and understanding that discipline and focus will be his 2025 getup, despite them being absent for two years.

It means truly grasping the fact that Albanese will be more on his game from here on in, sergeant-drilled by seasoned campaigners in Tim Gartrell and David Epstein who will have the luxury of putting aside their day jobs of running a government, to singularly keep Anthony Albanese on the straight and narrow.

With this diminishing opportunity to pounce on traditional Albanisms, gaffes, and policy problems, Dutton must be relentlessly singular in his message: the Albanese Government hasn’t just failed to tackle the cost-of-living crisis — its excessive spending has actively made things worse.

That alone will remind voters of a hard truth: this “new and improved” Albanese?

He’s just not that guy.

Andrew Carswell was an adviser to the Morrison government