CAMERON MILNER: Barnaby Joyce could be the new centrist voice if he plays by Nigel Farage’s handbook

Australian politics is deeply vulnerable to a right wing populist takeover, similar to how Nigel Farage’s Reform has totally recast the UK landscape, even without a general election.

It’s what Pauline Hanson has been trying to do for 30 years.

But she won’t be at the helm. It will be Barnaby Joyce who will lead the way for this new force in Australian politics.

The stunning rise of Farage and his Reform UK party has been greater than that of any AI developer or critical minerals miner. Polls show they are on course to be the largest party in the UK if an election were held today.

Reform has captured the mood of Britons. They know Reform is flawed, but they’re sick of the Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumber politics of the major parties.

Farage isn’t new to politics. In fact its his familiarity to voters that is driving them towards him and his mission to Make Britain Great Again.

Reform UK is different to UKIP, the party’s far right forerunner which Farage led for 10 years.

UKIP’s close association with fascists such as Tommy Robinson and the race riots he is alleged to have stoked doomed the party, by making British voters in the centre uncomfortable.

And unlike UKIP, Reform isn’t relying solely on Brexit voters.

Brexit was a watershed moment in the UK. Many of those who voted to leave were voting for both the first and last time in their lives. This was an issue that really meant something to them, and presented an unmissable opportunity to stick it to the Europhile elites running both the Conservatives and Labour parties.

But those voters weren’t there at the general election only two years later.

Using Brexit votes to map Reform voting intention is as idiotic as using the Voice No vote to map votes for the Coalition under Peter Dutton in May. The big mistake is to see correlation as causation.

Reform was launched in 2018 as the Brexit Party, just two years after the referendum. It won no seats at UK’s 2019 general election.

Today, Reform is very much a mainstream political party, taking votes from both Labour and the Conservatives. They aren’t trying to start a revolution from the far right, or shouting from the end of bar for a pint.

Instead they’ve walked into the middle of politics, elbowing their way to the front and ordering not only a British Pride Lager but shouting the rest of the pub a round of GB Pale Ale.

The Conservatives are coming a bad third while Labour, elected just 15 months ago with a record majority, are a poor second. YouGov last week put Reform’s vote at 27 per cent, with Labor and Conservatives both on 17 per cent.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has more in common with UKIP than it does reform. It is not the answer and will be forever tainted by Hanson and her dog whistling on race.

Tellingly, the party appear to have realised this, having moved to drop her name from its title.

The Coalition are making a dog’s breakfast of Opposition. The Liberals are a party with just two seats in our major cities and are riven with dissent and division.

Their country cousins in the Nationals have blown up the net zero debate, leaving Coalition leader Sussan Ley looking like soon-to-be road kill caught in the headlights of the Andrew Hastie/Jacinta Nampijinpa Price/Matt Canavan B-triple road train.

Like his British counterpart Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is on cruise control, keeping his election promise to do very little.

Inflation hasn’t been beaten, unemployment is on the rise and productivity is non-existent. Cost of living remains an issue for manyand we are still in the midst of a crisis of housing affordability and supply.

Both Australia and UK are dealing with waves of both legal and illegal migration. People in the UK are in open revolt. Will Australians be far behind?

Labour has rolled out the red carpet for Gazans on tourist visas. Even ISIS brides — those who’ve left our shores for jihad overseas — are welcomed back.

The conditions for a Reform Australia are there. An economy going nowhere, a housing crisis, a rudderless Labor with a whacking majority and no plan opposed by a conservative party disappearing up its own vent of utter irrelevance.

The lesson from Reform UK and Farage is that being a right wing party in the mould of One Nation and UKIP won’t get you close to the voting centre.

Being the Brexit Party or the No to the Voice party gets you smashed by voters.

What you need is a message centrists voters feel comfortable with, and the right leader to sell that message.

Joyce could be that leader.

He’s already well known. Sure he’s bombastic, but he can hold a crowd and has an everyman appeal.

Without the shackles of the Nationals partyroom, he could take the foundations of One Nation and build a voice for the disillusioned and frankly badly let down voter in the middle.

The political driver is widespread concern over the levels and sources of our migration under Labor and that the Liberals are now jelly backs on our borders.

Farage is riding the popular moment. His message is he’s for a greater Britain, stopping unfettered migration and stopping the boats.

It’s an easy playbook for Joyce to follow. The current state of the self-absorbed Liberals and an arrogant Labor look incredibly vulnerable.