EDITORIAL: Donald Trump’s reversal on Ukraine heralds era of no guarantees

When Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border in early 2022 intent on its destruction or subjugation, the world’s democracies were one in their outrage.

International conflicts don’t often come so black and white.

The tyrannical Vladimir Putin was the bad guy; the clear aggressor in an unprovoked and illegal war.

Democratically-elected Volodymyr Zelensky was the good guy; a hero of resistance, defending his nation’s sovereignty.

That’s not how US President Donald Trump sees it.

In his conception of events, the roles of victim and villain are flipped. Zelensky is no defender of democracy, but a “dictator without elections”, whose addiction to American financial aid has made him content to see his country in ruins and condemn “millions” of his compatriots to die in a war of his own making.

Mr Trump’s provocative and error-filled social media post, which came as Ukraine was this week left out of settlement talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, is an abrupt departure from three years of strong American support for Ukraine.

The ramifications for Ukraine and its future as a sovereign nation could be dire.

It has the rest of the Western alliance nervous too.

For a century, the democratic world has relied on US military might to maintain global order.

A month after Mr Trump’s inauguration, that democratic world is asking the question: Can the US still be counted on as a reliable ally? Can the US President still be regarded as the leader of the free world?

In one regard, Mr Trump does have a point.

The rest of the world will likely need to make more of a contribution to its own security, instead of lazily relying on the US for protection against any aggressor.

Only 23 of 32 NATO member countries are expected to have met the 2024 spending target of 2 per cent of GDP.

A new target is yet to be set. NATO head Mark Rutte has said a number “considerably more than 3 per cent” is likely to be set. The US wants their spending to be set at 5 per cent.

It’s a conversation that should make Australian policymakers nervous. Mr Trump is yet to voice an opinion about our defence spending.

But it’s inevitable that he will eventually turn his attention to the AUKUS pact. When he does, will he be satisfied with our spending, which in 2023-2024 was 2 per cent of GDP? That figure is projected by Treasury to climb to 2.4 per cent by 2028.

Australia has a long and strong friendship with the US. But Mr Trump has made it clear he is unsentimental about such ties.

His “American first” policy is an unashamedly transactional approach to global affairs. If there’s not enough in it for the US, Mr Trump won’t hesitate to tear up longstanding deals. So far, his administration has mostly spoken fondly of AUKUS.

But this is an era of no guarantees.

Alliances which were once steadfast are no longer so.

It’s a reality we must prepare for.