EDITORIAL: Now it’s time for a real immigration debate

We now have confirmation the tail has wagged the dog on immigration.

With the release of the Coalition’s immigration policy on Tuesday, there are three competing plans.

Labor, the Coalition and One Nation have all revealed their hands.

The release of the three policies so far in advance of the expected election in 2028 is an indication of just how much impact the issue — driven relentlessly by One Nation — was having on political discourse.

The longer Labor and the Coalition let the debate drift, the longer One Nation had to hammer the idea that only it was serious about addressing what has entrenched itself as a significant concern for many voters, often linked to other issues such as housing and cost of living pressures.

Net overseas migration had surged following the COVID pandemic, reaching 387,000 in 2022 and a record 547,300 in 2023 before falling to 340,800 in 2024 and 301,000 in 2025.

Last month One Nation leader Pauline Hanson vowed to “reset Australia’s immigration system” by slashing the number of temporary visa holders and unlawful non-citizens.

One Nation was the first to release its plan, which said once the temporary visa population was reduced by about 750,000 over three years, a net overseas migration ceiling of 130,000 per year would remain in place and be reviewed yearly.

It would also cap the main student visa intake at 100,000 a year for three years and create a new visa subclass for high-value postgraduate study, including for PhDs and select STEM research degrees.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke then released Labor’s policy, which aimed to achieve the May Budget forecast of bringing net overseas migration to 245,000 this financial year and 225,000 in 2027/28.

It would include a crackdown on rogue migration agents, a working holiday maker ballot system in the second and third year and improving the integrity of student visas by stopping visa hopping and restricting secondary applicants on most education visas.

Under Opposition Leader Angus Taylor’s plan, net overseas migration would be cut to 100,000 a year for the Coalition’s first two years in government, then gradually increase to 130,000 in its third year and 160,000 in its fourth year, with housing supply determining future levels.

Mr Taylor said the Coalition’s plan would also reduce the number of temporary visa holders by about 650,000 over four years, while increasing temporary skilled visas by 100,000.

So the key numbers are out there.

Headline numbers are a blunt instrument which have been used in a reaction to having the agenda hijacked by One Nation.

It’s become politics ahead of policy.

A better way forward would be to clearly establish first what we are trying to achieve with migration in this country.

Asking questions around what skills do we need? Who can deliver them? And how do we achieve that?

But instead here we are. The parameters have been set. Now it comes down to how successfully the parties can sell their messages.

But you can bet that even those who scream loudest for big cuts to immigration numbers will be among the first to complain if they can’t get a tradie, nurse or care worker.

Responsibility for this editorial comment is taken by Editor-in-Chief Christopher Dore