JENI O’DOWD: Angus Taylor is the Coalition’s best chance of reconnecting with disillusioned voters

Middle Australia may be furious with the Liberal Party right now, and frankly, fair enough too.

But voters should think carefully about what would happen if the Coalition completely fell apart, as clearly, One Nation is not some fringe protest party anymore.

Polling released over the weekend was, quite frankly, depressing to conservative voters and deeply unsettling for both major parties.

The poll, conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, showed One Nation overtaking Labor on primary vote, with Pauline Hanson pushing ahead of Angus Taylor as preferred prime minister.

It found One Nation sitting on 28 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of Labor on 26 per cent, while the Coalition was sitting at just 23 per cent.

Hard to believe this is the state of politics in Australia today.

Hanson, once treated as a political outsider, now leads a party polling ahead of Labor, as One Nation becomes a home for frustrated Australians who no longer believe either major party is listening to them.

And after that federal budget debacle, can anyone really be surprised?

Australians are angry about the cost of living. Angry about housing. Angry about migration pressures. Angry about feeling like they are working harder while falling further behind.

Instead of calming people down after the cost-of-living disaster we are all living through, Labor went back to negative gearing and changes to capital gains tax. For many voters, it felt like Bill Shorten all over again.

The danger now for the Liberal Party is that this anger is no longer scattered across independents and protest movements. It is consolidating behind Pauline Hanson in a way that seriously stymies the Coalition’s long path back to government.

And whether people like hearing it or not, many Australians would feel deeply uncomfortable seeing Hanson effectively become the dominant voice of conservative Australia on the world stage.

Voters are drifting towards One Nation out of frustration. But plenty of them are not necessarily comfortable with some of Hanson’s rhetoric either, which at times borders on racism.

Which is exactly why the Coalition still has a chance to rebuild under Angus Taylor.

The international media sees Pauline Hanson as part of a broader Western trend: distrust of elites, backlash against migration levels, frustration with economic pressure and scepticism towards major parties.

As we have seen with other minor parties around the world, One Nation has very successfully tapped into these frustrations, which is what makes Angus Taylor’s leadership so politically important.

Not because he is perfect. Not because he is universally loved. And not because every voter will agree with every policy position he takes.

But because, for the first time in years, many conservative voters have heard a Liberal leader speak in a way that actually sounded connected to how they feel.

Taylor’s Budget reply speech was blunt, focusing heavily on migration and economic pressure, topics many Liberals seemed almost frightened to discuss properly.

Straight away, critics claimed he was drifting too close to Pauline Hanson. But clearly, many voters feel these issues are being ignored. What is wrong with a political leader reflecting that?

Taylor’s broader economic pitch in his Budget reply speech was also politically significant.

His proposal to permanently index tax brackets to inflation was classic Howard-era Liberalism: rewarding work, aspiration, and people trying to get ahead, while directly addressing bracket creep that quietly pushes Australians to pay more tax over time.

The contrast with Labor’s budget approach could hardly have been sharper.

While Treasurer Jim Chalmers revived debate around scaling back negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions, Taylor pitched lower long-term tax pressure and economic aspiration.

For many voters, one approach sounded punitive. The other sounded hopeful.

And after years of political instability, revolving-door leadership challenges and internal Coalition warfare, that matters.

The Liberal Party does not need another leadership bloodbath. It needs stability, discipline and time to rebuild trust with voters who have drifted away.

Andrew Hastie may think he is the party’s future, but many conservatives believe the Ben Roberts-Smith saga has damaged that momentum.

Right now, whether critics like it or not, Angus Taylor is the Coalition’s best chance of reconnecting with disillusioned conservative Australia.

The polls sent a very clear message. Voters are tired, angry and looking elsewhere. If the Coalition cannot reconnect with them, there’s no doubt One Nation will keep growing like an out-of-control weed you cannot destroy.