JENI O’DOWD: Major parties ignore struggling Aussies at their peril, and Pauline Hanson’s gain

I still remember covering the 1991 NSW election night as a young political reporter.

The Greiner camp was so sure they had it in the bag that crates of champagne appeared before the votes were even properly counted.

But soon their smiles vanished, and Bob Carr’s Labor team was so shocked at its near-win that one staff member hugged me before realising I was a journalist and then apologised profusely.

The swing against the Greiner Government was bigger than anyone expected; the mood turned, and the champagne was quietly wheeled away.

Politics often changes like that. It moves gradually, as voters lose faith bit by bit and governments fail to see the warning signs.

That kind of mood is easy to spot in Australia now. You can see it in talks about food prices, mortgage repayments and the debate over our immigration policy.

It shows up in social media commentary and in the growing success of One Nation, a party that once sat on the fringe.

The party’s growing support, highlighted at the weekend’s South Australian election, is not simply a protest against the Liberal Party. It is a warning shot aimed squarely at the Albanese Government.

The result was clearly a blow for the Liberals, but, significantly, One Nation also made inroads into Labor’s outer-suburban communities.

At the heart of all this is the cost of living. Not just petrol prices, but the day-to-day squeeze that households are feeling everywhere.

An ACOSS report this week found 75 per cent of Australians are struggling to afford basic heating and cooling, up sharply from 54 per cent last year. That is an extraordinary shift.

And, if you think that the cost of living doesn’t affect you, here’s an example of inflation on steroids. At my local Coles supermarket, a packet of dishwashing tablets costs $76.

One Nation has tapped into that frustration. Whether you agree with its policies is almost beside the point.

The party’s political success lies in recognising a growing belief among some Australians that the major parties are ignoring their concerns about immigration and the simple fact that it is just so hard to live nowadays.

This sense of being overlooked is not new. In 1942, Robert Menzies spoke of the “forgotten people”, middle-income Australians he believed were being squeezed by economic and political change.

More than half a century later, former prime minister John Howard successfully channelled a similar mood in the lead-up to the 1996 election.

Today, the danger for Labor is not simply the rise of One Nation. It is the broader sentiment behind it. When people feel their finances slipping and the country changing around them, they start looking for someone else to vote for.

Even senior Labor figures can see the warning signs. After his resounding win on Saturday, South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas agreed that One Nation was a threat at the Federal level.

“I think we have got to treat this seriously. I don’t think One Nation, or any political party for that matter, should be written off,” Mr Malinauskas told a morning television show.

“I think it is worthy of not demeaning anybody or diminishing anyone else’s point of view, but understanding what informed that surge. And I think there are implications for my party as much as there are for the Liberal Party.”

Anyone listening?

And, if you want any real sense of how everyday Aussies are feeling, spend a few minutes scrolling social media.

On Saturday, I was watching a live TikTok stream of a Sydney house auction and was struck by the angry comments.

Frustration about housing affordability. Anger, and more anger, about immigration. Some of the language was so colourful I can’t repeat it here.

When people can’t pay their bills and don’t like how society is changing, they want leaders to at least talk about the problem.

For the Albanese Government, this is the real test. Ignoring or dismissing the concerns of everyday Australians reinforces the dynamics driving voters towards One Nation.

There is also a greater risk looming just over the horizon for Labor.

If the Liberal Party manages to get its act together under Angus Taylor and starts speaking with economic authority, it could turn the protest vote we saw on Saturday into something far more dangerous.

History shows that when voters start moving in earnest, they do not always give much warning before the ground begins to shift beneath those in power.

Just ask Nick Greiner.