KATINA CURTIS: What’s in, what’s out for politics in this election year

New year, new you. Turn over a new leaf. Make resolutions.

The turning of the calendar and the summer lull inevitably bring a degree of introspection about the year past and one beginning.

From next week you can expect politics to resume at close to full tilt – and they will only get busier as the year approaches the May 17 deadline which is the latest an election can be held.

So what should be in and out for federal politics in 2025?

In: Policy detail and bold thinking

Let’s be frank, much about contemporary politics just isn’t that inspiring.

There are glimmers here and there but an orderly process of things means slow movement that often masks the big picture – or whether there is a big picture at all.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers insisted earlier in December that the Albanese government had been “plenty bold”, that it was a reforming administration rather than a radical one.

But there is no escaping the fact the structural woes of the budget and a housing crisis decades in the making will need big ideas and bold, probably unpopular, moves to tackle them.

That goes for both sides of politics.

It’s not good enough for an opposition to propose a radical cut to migration without detailing how it would do that or to complain about hundreds of billions in spending but not explain its proposed cuts.

Out: Personal sniping

This is probably wishful thinking as many pundits and strategists acknowledge the coming election campaign is likely to be one of the nastiest seen in some time.

Get ready to hear our leaders calling each other arrogant, reckless, nasty and out of touch over and over again.

Surely we can aim for better?

The same goes for press conferences; journalists wouldn’t be fulfilling their mandate if they didn’t ask and follow up difficult questions, especially when little detail is offered up-front, and it is worrying to see politicians pursuing a Trumpian path of attacking media or getting cranky at queries.

In: Rate cut

It seems like the odds of the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates in the early part of the year flip to longer then shorter with every new piece of economic data.

But with sluggish overall growth, despite continued strong employment, it is all but certain there will be a rate cut – the question is when.

Mortgage holders and renters will breathe a sigh of relief when it comes.

So will Anthony Albanese, Chalmers and Labor insiders – although the thinking over recent months has switched from hoping to incorporate a rate cut into an election campaign to saying it would be foolish to depend on what an independent central bank may or may not do.

Out: Election spendathons

In the past couple of election cycles the spending felt beyond ridiculous – millions promised for a club shed here, a dog park there, a mural out the back, with barely a question about whether the Commonwealth had a legitimate role in paying for such things.

Labor has brought more rigour to most grant processes and resisted topping up the buckets of non-competitive funding established to pay for its 2022 promises, unlike its predecessor.

Add to this the aforementioned structural budget problems and the emphasis put on saving windfall revenue and banking surpluses and you don’t get a recipe for big spending – as long as politicians can resist temptation.

Chalmers’ mid-year budget update contained $5.5 billion for as-yet-unannounced decisions, but this paled in comparison to the money stashed away in the past, including a whopping $15.8 billion ahead of the 2022 election and $10.2 billion, mostly tax cuts, leading into 2019.

In: Trust

The focus on the 2004 cabinet papers released on Wednesday came with a reminder of John Howard’s catch-all slogan in that year’s election: who do you trust?

2025 also marks the 50th anniversary of Gough Whitlam’s dismissal, a landmark event that for many broke the bonds of trust with our foundational institutions but also inspired a generation of young people – on both sides – to get into politics and rebuild.

Now trust in politicians and democratic institutions is far too low and it would be good to see it rebound in an election year.

Out: Not caring about politics

It’s an election year, you need to care! At least until the Sunday after polling day – or maybe a little longer if the predictions of a hung parliament come true.

Also in:

Reading widely for news and enjoyment, not getting trapped by algorithms, politicians answering questions in Canberra.

Also out:

Tiktok trends done badly, the moderate wing of the Liberal Party, red blazers on female Labor candidates.