CAMERON MILNER: Anthony Albanese won’t be PM in 12 months’ time, even if he wins Federal election

While commentators watch the tumbling polls for Albo, Labor’s next leadership hopefuls are prowling the savannah, positioning for the inevitable ALP leadership challenge that’s to come.

They say if you want to be Lion King it’s not enough to act like you are. You must have no doubt, because doubt causes chaos and one’s own demise.

The Albanese lion is clearly very long in the tooth, suffering a bad touch of mange and need of a hip replacement that has seen his pride shrink to only the most loyal Albanistas such as Katy Gallagher and Penny Wong.

Tony Burke, despite professing fealty to Albo, is at the centre of that daily chaos and knows his colleagues’ doubts about their current leader.

Albanese might be seen by voters as just weak and ineffectual, but to the wannabe next Labor leader it’s now no longer a case of if, but when they get to move on him.

Regardless of the result — minority Labor or minority Dutton — Albanese won’t be the Labor PM within a year from now.

So, who are the usual protagonists? When will the young succeed the old?

The two clearest contenders are Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Minister for Albo’s back, Tony Burke.

Compare the pair. Chalmers spent the weekend in Washington with some of Australia’s largest superannuation funds making the case to exempt Australia from Trump’s tariffs.

Burke attended one of the many vote stacking “citizenship ceremonies” for recent arrivals from the Middle East instead. You’ve got to give him full marks for the chutzpah of having AEC officials at the events weeks before the election to make sure these recent citizens enrol in his and his mates’ NSW electorates.

Burke has all the loyalty of Scott Morrison where a pat on the leader’s back is a reconnaissance mission for a knife. Burke’s ambition is hardly hidden. It is only surpassed by the bloke’s own high opinion of himself.

Tony Burke has risen through the thinning ranks of the NSW Right with a dip of the hat to the figjam strategy of leadership contender.

His carefully curated leadership campaign, replete with weeping guitar, has him positioning to the be the natural carrier of the Albanese legacy. That legacy would fit inside a box smaller than the one Jodie opened, but nevertheless Burke has convinced the Albanistas he is the natural heir to their caucus numbers.

Burke struts around Parliament. Ever since his days attending Young Labor meetings he rarely speaks, instead smiling on as others attempt to gain his favour with obsequious compliments.

Burke has used the shambles of the Albanese first term to build a twin power base of affiliated unions and of rank and file branch members in perfect preparation for using the Rudd Rules of ALP leadership change to his advantage.

Though the leadership rules can be set aside with a simple majority vote of the Federal caucus, Burke’s plan revolves entirely around using the Rudd Rules to take power from an enfeebled Albo post-election.

The Rudd Rules require equal weight be given to caucus members and to ALP members in selecting the next leader of the Labor Party.

The only time they’ve actually been used was 12 yeas ago when Albanese lost to Shorten in 2013 to become opposition leader. That ballot result was telling as though Albanese secured more branch member votes but he lost the vote badly amongst his caucus colleagues.

Albanese has already decided to retire and has arguably checked out well before now. Burke is ambitious and knows natural talent alone won’t get him there.

Burke isn’t about to repeat the mistake and knows that Chalmers is the better intellect, the better speaker, more popular with voters and just the better man to lead Labor.

Burke will use the Albanistas’ illogical hatred of Tanya Plibersek to thwart her chances of becoming the unity candidate from the Left, though he knows running against a talented women and a natural leadership talent won’t be easy either.

Instead, like a kid following a Lego instruction manual, he’s been putting the blocks in place brick by brick.

His first move has been to keep the NSW Right divided between his colleagues so that he, Bowen and Clare haven’t been able to agree on one candidate for leadership.

Secondly, he oversaw the trade union financial survival package of industrial relations laws that reward bureaucrat union bosses who just clip the ticket rather than make the effort to actually go out and recruit new members on merit. Making union secretaries’ lives easier makes getting their grace and favour easier as they whip their aligned caucus members into Burke votes.

His last move though is the most insidious.

Burke decided that his point of difference for branch members was to be anti-Israel and pro-Gazan.

His calculus is that he’ll gain votes among inner city elites in ALP branches who chortle as they boycott Jewish businesses.

Burke wants to appeal to the Keffiyeh scarf-wearing Young Labor lefties who could otherwise vote for Tanya.

Burke wants to rock out the vote of Muslim aligned branch stackers and ALP warlords in the most populous areas of Western Sydney and outer metro Melbourne electorates.

His leadership ambition is built on trashing the Labor Party’s strong support of Israel abroad and our Jewish Australian community at home. He dishonours the legacy of Bob Hawke. He also stands against other Labor leaders like Premier Chris Minns who are standing up against anti-Semitism and condemning the violence and terrorism in NSW.

Albanese has already decided to retire and has arguably checked out well before now. Burke is ambitious and knows natural talent alone won’t get him there.

So instead, as he professes to be Albo’s strongest supporter, he’s secured the support of lazy union bosses and sold Israel and the Jewish community out to garner ALP rank and file votes.