KIERSTEN DUKE: North Queensland Cowboys have the form to win NRL grand final

North Queensland Cowboys NRL Premiership Winners 2024.

Has a nice ring to it.

It was a sentence that wasn’t on many people’s lips towards at the beginning of the season when they lost four games in a row.

They did recover with a win against South Sydney in round 11 and it was this win that seemed to put a pep in their step.

The Rabbitohs were suffering one of the worst starts to a season in years (Souths fan cries into pillow), but it gave them the confidence they were lacking.

North Queensland then powered on to win four of their next five games. Beating some NRL heavyweights on the way including the Roosters and the three-peat champions Panthers.

If you thought that was an impressive streak, you should see their stats for rounds 20- 27. The only game they let slip was to last year’s grand finalists Brisbane.

Being the Queensland derby, the loss would’ve hurt but their efforts outside of that game have well and truly made up for it.

The Cowboys are looking strong going into their home elimination final against the Knights on Saturday night.

Last time the teams faced each other it ended in a nail-biting golden point victory to North Queensland.

But I am expecting a convincing Cowboys win this time around.

The Cowboys have the best win percentage (70 per cent) against the top eight teams this year.

Newcastle in comparison have a top-eight win rate of just 10 per cent.

If the Cowboys beat the Knights, sorry, when the Cowboys beat the Knights, they’ll have a slightly harder task on their hands in their next sudden death final.

I’m predicting Melbourne to beat Cronulla in their qualifying final on Saturday which means it’s the Cowboys against the Sharks in the semifinal.

If my predictions are correct, then the Cowboys statistically have a good chance against the Sharks as they seem to choke when it comes to big games (sorry Cronulla fans) with three wins and nine losses against this year’s top eight teams.

Also, let’s not forget that the Sharks were smashed 30-22 last time they played North Queensland. A repeat performance seems highly likely.

I appreciate that I seem overconfident of the Cowboys’ finals prospects but this isn’t a position I have come to flippantly.

Looking back over the years, well, the last 12 to be precise, the Cowboys win percentage during week one of the finals has been 83 per cent. That’s basically makes them odds on favourites.

Compare the Cowboys to the Storm or Panthers, who both sit at a respectable 75 per cent, and Manly at 50 per cent, and they look even better.

I won’t speak about the other teams first finals week winning percentages because I wouldn’t want to embarrass them.

No surprises about who I think is the Cowboys biggest threat to their premiership hopes – the Panthers.

Nathan Cleary returns from injury so Penrith can’t rely on him to carry them through September, but they’ve proven time and time again that they’re no one-man band and that they are a force to be reckoned with.