KIERSTEN DUKE: Why the international riders will prevail in the Melbourne Cup

A dominant quinella from internationals Lake Forest and Lazzart in Saturday’s $10m Golden Eagle (1500m) has punters questioning whether it will be de ja vu in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

For 10 years the Cup was owned by overseas runners. In 2019 Vow And Declare was the first Australian horse to win since Shocking in 2009.

Last year the Melbourne Cup was taken out by Without A Fight. Bred and trained in England, Without A Fight originally came over to take on the 2022 edition of the great 3200m race. Following a 13th placing, it was back to the drawing board to come back bigger and better. That he did, scoring the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double.

Incredible considering the last runner to win both of those races on the bounce was Ethereal in 2001.

Following this proven form line into Tuesday, it seems Buckaroo has had the best set-up to succeed. He placed second in the Caulfield Cup and has been faultless all season with his most impressive win coming from the Group 1 Underwood just three starts ago.

I remember this gelding flying over from Ireland in September last year and immediately falling in love with his cool and calm demeanour. Nothing phased him and I thought he would blow Aussie minds when he hit the Sydney turf. Unfortunately, this wasn’t the case. He put in relatively average performances. That was until September this year when he won the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes at Royal Randwick (1600m). Turns out all he needed was a little time.

What a fairy tale it would be if he could win on Tuesday, despite the terribly wide draw.

Fairy tales aren’t unheard of in the Melbourne Cup. In 2015 Michelle Payne’s dreams came true when she became the first female jockey to win the race. A record four women are riding in this year’s edition.

Natural lightweight Hollie Doyle has flown over from the UK to partner the Harry Eustace-trained Sea King. The gelding has a favourable inside draw and has come from England in flying form franked by a jaw-dropping win in the Group 3 Bendigo Cup (2400m) less than a week ago.

His travel buddy Onesmoothoperator, given the pet name Smoothie, can’t be dismissed. Hailing from north Yorkshire, this gelding has also hit the ground running winning the Geelong Cup (2400m) on October 23 in his first start on Aussie soil.

This year’s Cup favourite, Irish stayer Vauban, was disappointing in last year’s race placing 14th, but he has found a purple patch of form since returning to the UK.

The moment I thought ‘Wow, he’s back’ was when I was trackside at the York Ebor festival in August.

He was a little hot under the collar before loading into the starting gates but he was impressive thundering to the line. Despite being a little anxious before loading, Vauban’s stablemate still makes him look cool as a cucumber.

Absurde lives up to his name. After winning the York Ebor in 2023 his trainer Willie Mullins stated in a post-race interview that the horse would pass the full body scan from the vets if they didn’t scan his head. With a funky character like that, how can you not have a soft spot for this entertaining runner ($11), who placed a respectable 7th in last year’s Cup. I’m tipping the 7YO gelding to salute tomorrow.

High pressure was on the Japanese in the Golden Eagle on Saturday, but sadly it wasn’t meant to be. A more favourable draw of barrier three on Tuesday might see them prevail.

Warp Speed was a group 1 contender on home soil but seemed a little flat in the Caulfield Cup finishing 16 lengths behind Duke De Sessa. If you consider that this was his first run back in just under six months, I think he can be forgiven. Especially from barrier 16 against the ultra-fit Aussies on soft ground.

Perhaps second time is a charm for this runner. Getting up over 3200m should see him more comfortable and not to mention being back on top of the ground.

I believe the fact that four out of the top five horses in betting are overseas visitors speaks volumes. The internationals are putting the pressure on and will make their presence felt.