LEIGH MATTHEWS: Sydney Swans can turn AFL season around as they vie with Brisbane, Bulldogs and Port Adelaide

With the Olympics in full swing the analogies with an AFL season are everywhere, none more so than with the marathon which will be the final event in Paris on Saturday.

After 21 rounds, to use the marathon comparison, we are probably in view of the stadium with a few kilometres to go.

The long gruelling effort to stay in winning contention has taken its toll on many competitors and all the glory awaits the one who can eventually go all the way in September.

Each Monday the footy landscape is different with nine winners and nine losers coming off the weekend’s games (not forgetting a few draws this year). While there are clearly many scenarios that are still possible, in regard to ladder position and current form, I believe there are four standout teams most likely to win the three consecutive games in September to make the grand final.

Sydney, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs are my four favourites with three rounds to go.

The Swans, who’ve had a long lead for most of the race, all of a sudden have the chasing pack right on their tail.

Every win gives you four points, but if you had a choice of winning your first four or winning your last four, you’d want to win your last four games. Being in good form in August before you start your September run is critical to your eventual success.

The reason for the Swans’ recent freefall is not that complex. It’s the performance of the players. Commentators analyse a whole lot of issues but the reality is they’re flesh and blood. They’re not robots. And human performance is inconsistent.

For Port Adelaide to win by 112 points they had to be terrific, and they were, but the Swans were terrible. I don’t take a whole lot of notice of one week, but the fact is the Swans have lost four of their last five, so they have been deteriorating.

They were losing by small margins and then the Bulldogs beat them by 39 points and now they’ve been thrashed by 112. They’ve really fallen off the wagon.

That driving midfield quartet of Brody Grundy, Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden, which was blitzing it for most of the year, have lost their mojo.

But no one can possibly explain why they could get beaten by 112 points. In 1990 when I was coaching Collingwood, Hawthorn beat us by 83 points in round 20, but we recovered from that to win the flag.

The thing with the Swans is one bad game can happen, but they’ve had two really bad games and one of those was simply woeful.

As a coach, you review each game with your players the same way as if you won by 100 points or lost by 100 points.

It is important not to panic and not to overreact to either success or failure. Each match must be treated as a learning event on the way to improved future performance.

Sydney were terrible and the Swans players know they were terrible. It’s not as if the players have to be told they were terrible. What you’ve got to do is try and sell hope that if you do this, this and this it will be much better against Collingwood this week.

The Swans have had a few injuries. Three quarters of the way through the season they’ve had 16 players who played every game. Now they’ve been hit with personnel issues as well as the loss of form of some of their key players, but that’s not enough to explain Saturday night’s massacre.

Conversely, Port Adelaide‘s midfield group of Connor Rozee, Zac Butters, Jason Horne-Francis, Willem Drew, Ollie Wines are playing superbly. They’ve hit a purple patch over the last few weeks.

What’s made the Bulldogs so much better recently is the continued great seasons from Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar, while the addition of Ed Richards to their midfield group and the attack off half-back from Bailey Dale has taken them to another level in terms of the drive they are getting around the middle of the ground.

And Rory Lobb, who has been deployed at centre-half back the last month, has been a revelation. Add Jamara Ugle-Hagan up forward who is in a rare vein of form in the front half and the Bulldogs are flying.

While only seventh on the ladder the Bulldogs are probably the form team of the competition along with Brisbane, who have won nine straight and are rightly premiership favourites.

The Lions sit second and could secure the all-important top two finish to earn themselves the double chance and home finals in September.

The proven midfield core of the Lions, Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage are firing and Cam Rayner is adding another dimension as the tackle breaking power mid.

In contrast, a team that got off to a hot start this year, Geelong, are struggling to get a consistent midfield core. They threaten with Patrick Dangerfield on his day, but those days are fewer and further between this year.

Brisbane face the fourth placed Greater Western Sydney at the Gabba this week in one of the many games that will influence the final top four.

Meanwhile, this last round has ended the finals hope of Gold Coast and Melbourne. I can’t imagine Melbourne winning their three remaining games.

The eighth team to make the finals might need 13 or possibly 14 wins. Collingwood are on 40 points with nine wins and two draws so are still a slim chance but look unlikely to go unbeaten over the remaining rounds.

If Collingwood don’t play finals it won’t be through a lack of contribution from arguably one of their best ever players.

Scott Pendlebury in his 400th game was as good as anyone on the ground in Collingwood’s stirring win over Carlton. He is the closest modern-day equivalent to a captain-coach that we have and that’s what puts him a head above the rest.

I had the great pleasure of coaching two de facto captain-coaches, Tony Shaw at Collingwood and Michael Voss at the Lions.

Like those two premiership captains, Pendlebury has the ability to be a role model leader through his actions but also has that unique ability to control what’s going on around him. He is the on-field coach by providing calm instruction to make sure the tactics the Pies want applied are executed.

Carlton are not looking the premiership threat that they were looking earlier in the year, it’s just not consistently working for the Blues.

The Harry McKay-Charlie Curnow combination isn’t getting the job done and they are too dependent on Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh in the middle.

But as they say, where there is life there is hope and there are still 11 teams in contention to make the finals.

And the rollercoaster ride of an AFL coach moves on relentlessly.

Remember only two months back when many pundits were calling Luke Beveridge a dud on borrowed time, that Ken Hinkley was passed it and that Chris Fagan was not getting the job done.

Well right now that trio all geniuses.

This notion that when a team is not going well it’s all the senior coach’s fault and when they are winning they are lauded is far too simplistic.

The coach is a big part of the equation, but only part of it.

Coaches do the plotting and planning but players must execute the game plans on the field.

Do we think that John Longmire and his coaching group are really different now than they were for most of the season? Clearly not. Again, it’s the players performance that varies the most from week to week.

There’s going to be some engrossing games until the final round. The unpredictability of our game and the see-sawing pendulum of form is what makes our game so great and near impossible to predict what the ultimate outcome will be. Which is why as a player, coach or fan we love and hate it all at the same time.