RICHO’S TOP 10: Sydney Swans to make AFL top four, Bontempelli to win Brownlow Medal and Pies to fall in 2026

1. Every year a team bounces from outside the top eight and into the top four.

It’s happened the last 11 seasons. Last year it was the Adelaide Crows. My tip this year is the Sydney Swans. They rarely miss finals two years in a row. My three reasons are Charlie Curnow, Errol Gulden and Dean Cox. Curnow who will benefit from Sydney’s elite inside 50 kicking. Gulden played the last 10 games of 2025 and, with a full season from Errol, the Swans just have to be better. His elite kicking is the key to the Swans’ ball movement. And Cox has now had a year to emerge from the Longmire era. It’s his team now. He will be a better coach in his second year.

2. I suspect the biggest villain of season 2026 could be on display at the SCG tonight for Channel Seven’s season opener — well at least in Blues’ fans eyes.

The Carlton faithful will not be happy if Charlie Curnow kicks the Swans to a win and goes on to have a great season. I expect the Swans to win well but the Blues won both their preseason hit outs and looked solid with some new faces in Will Hayward and Oliver Florent who also face old teammates tonight. It’s also worth noting with Curnow leaving the Blues a lot falls to Harry McKay. Coincidentally Big Harry had his best season in 2021 when Curnow played only four games. Maybe, just maybe, Harry can operate better inside forward 50 without Charlie. We will find out tonight at the SCG, I can’t wait.

3. Who slides in 2025? I think it may just be the Pies.

They enter the season as the oldest team in the comp. While experience counts, father time is always undefeated, and I think he may get them in 2026. The forward line is my biggest concern. Their work horse Brody Mihocek is gone as is Mason Cox. Dan McStay has not been able to find consistent form in his three years at Collingwood and has been plagued by injury. It leaves a lot for Tim Membrey and Jamie Elliott to do. The continued absence of Bobby Hill is also a big problem.

4. The Cats are the prototype football club, envied by all.

They win a final most years and they regularly make the preliminary final. But in 2026 they are going to have to buck a big trend. No team that has lost a grand final by more than 40 points since 2000 has been able to win a final the following year. It’s happened 13 times and seven times those teams missed the finals the next year. This won’t happen to the Cats. They will win a final in 2026.

5. It’s so hard to not pick the Lions to win the grand final again.

I can’t find a reason why they won’t be the best team again unless they lack motivation or suffer a bad run of injuries, but they managed to deal with the latter very well in the last two seasons. They would join the mighty Lions of 2001-2003 and the Hawks of 2013-2015 by making it a three-peat. The team that could spoil the party could be Hawthorn. They made a preliminary final last year and I think they have the system to go one further this year. Their defensive structure holds up in tight games and they force turnovers as well as any team. Sam Mitchell is incredibly hungry and astute and gets the best out of his players. My only worry is Will Day being out for half the season.

6. Greg Swann didn’t muck around after his arrival at AFL House.

Over the summer he has implemented some rule changes mostly designed to shorten games. It’s a long overdue move with quarters blowing out to 35-36 minutes. The biggest change to the game will be at centre bounce. The bounce is gone, and the umpires will now throw the ball up and ruckmen can no longer cross the line in the centre circle. This is all designed to get ruckmen jumping at each other again. This could have a big effect on leading ruckmen Tristian Xerri and Jarrod Witts. Both these guys like to cross the line and use their big bodies. Neither are jumpers at the ball. It will be interesting to see how they adapt. But one thing is for sure, we will see much cleaner exits from stoppage.

7. Each year a player puts his hand up and becomes a superstar of the competition.

Last year it was Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. Who will it be in 2026? My tip is Kozzy Pickett from the Dees. Yes, he is already an All-Australian, but I think he will improve further this season. He is the player every team needs. Electric speed and burst out of the centre with the ability to hit the scoreboard in a big way. Five times he has kicked five or more goals in a game. I’m predicting a 50-goal season from Kozzy with huge impact from centre bounce for Melbourne. What a star.

8. A game has not been played but I think Marcus Bontempelli wins the Brownlow and Jagga Smith the Rising Star award.

I can’t believe Bontempelli hasn’t won one yet. It would be a travesty to me if The Bont didn’t retire with a Brownlow. I did have Tiger Taj Hotton pegged for the Rising Star, but he is now a long shot after having been out with a hip injury for a long period. Smith, in his second year but really his first after doing his ACL in last year’s pre-season will play his first game tonight against the Swans at the SCG. David Parkin once said he was the best under-10s footballer he had seen. That’s a big statement from the legend. This kid was destined to be an AFL player. He will be a bona fide midfielder, starting tonight.

9. I was wrong on State of Origin, it was a huge success.

I thought it was a dead format. But it was supported by the biggest stars in the game. They wanted to play and they played hard. Perth could not have done the whole week any better. I think Origin should now be Perth’s to own like Adelaide has Gather Round. The only downside is the injuries, and we had two big ones this year with Sam Taylor and Matt Rowell now out for large chunks of the season. Injuries will be the only thing that can kill Origin moving forward. Just ask Dimma and Adam Kingsley their thoughts. They would be privately seething with their stars are injured.

10. As a kid in Tassie watching footy, I loved the commentary of Dennis Cometti.

He had an unmistakable voice and memorable lines. As an AFL player you were stoked if Dennis had called a play you had contributed to that made the highlight reel. It was something to show the kids. And then to get to call a game of football with him. I was very lucky to have enjoyed Dennis in all phases of my footy life. He was simply the best. An icon. You will be missed Dennis. Rest in peace.