AARON PATRICK: The Liberals’ even split between three candidates is actually helping Sussan Ley

Liberal MPs are roughly evenly split between support for Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, defence spokesman Angus Taylor and backbencher Andrew Hastie, party sources say, creating an impasse to a challenge likely to protect the Liberal leader in the short term.

All three MPs joined about 1000 others on Thursday for the funeral of Katie Allen, a Melbourne doctor who held the seat of Higgins from 2019 to 2022, at St Paul’s Cathedral in Melbourne.

The Liberal Party leadership and the Coalition’s future was one of the main topics of conversation, according to attendees.

A few hours earlier at the house of Senator James Patterson, the putative leadership contenders, Mr Hastie and Mr Taylor, held a 40-minute meeting to try to resolve the deadlock.

Liberal backbenchers don’t know if Ms Ley plans to appoint a replacement frontbench for the Nationals who quit before Parliament resumes on Tuesday.

Some Liberal MPs have been told new frontbench appointments are not necessary before Monday, when the Nationals are scheduled to vote on whether David Littleproud should remain leader.

A replacement for Mr Littleproud could reunite the Liberal Party and Nationals’ alliance, making it unnecessary to replace the shadow ministers who resigned last week.

Even if the Coalition does not reform before Parliament resumes, the Opposition could inform the speakers of the House of Representatives and the Senate that frontbench roles will remain vacant for the moment and portfolios will be allocated to existing shadow ministers on a temporary basis.

No challenge

At Thursday’s talks in Melbourne, which were brokered by former Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, neither Mr Hastie nor Mr Taylor agreed to stand aside to allow the other to become sole challenger to Ms Ley, according to a source familiar with the conversation.

Because both are from the party’s conservative faction, unless they join forces it is unclear if there are enough votes to trigger a vote on Ms Ley’s leadership.

Many MPs feel Ms Ley should be removed because of her poor performance in the polls and failure to keep the Coalition intact. But Ms Ley, Mr Taylor and Mr Hastie are supported by roughly one third of all Liberal MPs, who chose their leader.

“I don’t believe there’ll be a challenge next week,” deputy leader Ted O’Brien told the ABC. “I’m in close contact with my colleagues.”

Mr Hastie’s support is concentrated among MPs who want to see the party focus on winning over conservatives voters, especially those in country areas and the outer suburbs, with promises of a revival of manufacturing and less free trade.

Mr Taylor has been picking up votes among urban MPs who believe the party should campaign more on economics than culture, party sources said.

They would like to see a leader who can embarrass the Government over accelerating inflation that is likely to trigger one or more interest rate increases this year, costing average mortgage holders more than $1000.

Even MPs from the party’s left faction who want to switch to Mr Taylor are reluctant to bring down the party’s first female leader and someone who promised to campaign from the “sensible centre”.

“I think we should stay with Sussan till the end,” said one faction member. “We don’t want to be part of that. That end will come.”

Electoral impact

Liberals will be closely watching a Newspoll expected to be published Sunday evening or Monday morning that may show whether Ms Ley has been able to arrest her popularity slide.

The last poll, out two weeks ago, estimated support for Ms Ley at 31 per cent compared with Anthony Albanese’s 51 per cent. The Government was 10 percentage points ahead.

The new poll may quantify the electoral impact of the Coalition break-up, information the challengers’ supporters are likely to use to argue Ms Ley should be replaced.

“She is terminal,” said one right-wing figure.

If the Coalition doesn’t resume soon, Ms Ley will have to appoint about 10 new shadow ministers from the Liberal ranks. They would receive pay rises and extra staff.

Reversing the appointments in the future to accommodate Nationals MPs would cause resentment, Liberals say, complicating the job of Ms Ley or anyone who takes over from her.

She also faces the prospect of leading 28 Liberal MPs into the House of Representatives on Tuesday, where they will be opposed by 94 Labor MPs, reinforcing the Liberal Party’s challenge of returning to power.

On Thursday, the Government continued to attack the opposition over its internal problems, although the Prime Minister avoided direct criticism of Ms Ley.

“I find it astonishing that there are meetings taking place about the leadership of the Liberal Party on a day such as today,” Mr Albanese said, referring to Ms Allen’s funeral.