Andy Burnham’s by-election win over Farage’s Reform party puts UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on notice
The so-called ‘King of the North’ has defeated the Reform candidate in a by-election which was was put to voters as a chance to elect a replacement for Starmer.
Andy Burnham has done what Keir Starmer has failed to demonstrate and passed the only test in British politics worth taking — beating Reform UK.
The by-election victory of the so-called “King of the North” has put Keir Starmer’s premiership on notice, with Mr Burnham saying his stunning election win in Makerfield was a turning point and final chance to change the UK government.
The popular Mayor of Manchester did not just pass his electoral test; he crushed it, easily slaying Nigel Farage’s Reform party as he swept to a convincing victory.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.It is much-needed hope for the beleaguered mainstream left of centre politics — it shows that populism is far from unstoppable.
In May, Reform took all wards in the local election, but in the by-election, which was put to voters as a chance to elect a replacement for Keir Starmer, they opted for Labour.
Mr Burnham won 54 per cent of the vote, increasing Labour’s majority to 9231 votes, compared to 35 per cent for Reform. Turnout increased to 58 per cent compared to 52 per cent in 2024 general election.
He united the left, reducing the recently resurgent Greens and Liberal Democrats to less than half of a per cent.
The right split with 34 per cent for Reform, 7 per cent for the new Restore party which seeks to be more hardline than Reform and just 2.2 per cent for the Conservatives.
It was a stunning result given Labour is polling 19 per cent nationally, compared to 24 per cent for Reform, according to YouGov.
Luke Tryl, a pollster with More in Common, an NGO which works on countering polarisation, said it was a bad night for Reform and a good night for mainstream parties.
“This is unarguably Reform’s worst night since General Election, barely any increase in their vote share in Makerfield and a 20 point Labour win in a seat that was one of their best second places in 2024,” he said.
“Restore Britain takes 7 per cent, replicated elsewhere in fragmented politics Reform’s path to govt becomes very, very hard.”
Separately, the Conservatives posted a win in a byelection in Scotland, taking Aberdeen South, formerly held by the SNP, in a major boost for leader Kemi Badenoch.
Mr Burnham’s win was an improvement on the 5399 majority posted in 2024, when Sir Keir led Labour to a landslide victory, underlining the popularity of Mr Burnham’s brand compared to his party’s, which has only languished under Sir Keir’s leadership.
It is the result that many Labour MPs believe he can replicate across the country.
Reading from a prepared speech, Mr Burnham did not mention Keir Starmer. But he said he was determined to complete his “unfinished business” by returning to Westminster, where he served as an MP between 2001 and 2017.
“Everyone knows politics isn’t working, everyone knows the country isn’t working,” he said.
“Tonight could, just could, be the turning point … bringing back hope for the future.”
He warned his future Labour colleagues: “I do say to my own party, this is a final chance for chance, this is what people said directly to me as I stood on hundreds of doorsteps.”
“There will be no second chance, but it is a chance now, from this result tonight, to build a new politics based on unity and hope, turning away from the path that takes us to a divided, dark politics of the kind we see in the United States.”
Sir Keir responded just after 6am with a post on X, congratulating Mr Burnham, but did not address the leadership question.
“Voters chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate,” he said.
Speaking from the G7 summit in Evian, France, he had offered Mr Burnham a place in his Cabinet.
The peace offering was always unlikely to work.
Sir Keir’s leadership has been on life support for months and took it’s heaviest blow last week when the widely respected Labour loyalist John Healey resigned over Sir Keir’s failure to fund the nation’s defences.
Sir Keir will come under heavy pressure to resign to pave the way for a bloodless leadership contest, which could be fought between former Health Secretary Wes Streeting and even Mr Healey, who could win the support of the right faction that does not support Mr Burnham.
He has previously flagged his intention to continue fighting and said that his rivals must challenge, something to which UK Labour has held an historical aversion.
If Sir Keir refuses to step aside, other Cabinet colleagues, such as the former leader Ed Miliband, could go.
It is up to the Prime Minister how bloody he wants to make his demise and how much dignity he preserves when he makes his final speech outside Downing Street.
