AUKUS raucous in Canberra as submarine experts debate Donald Trump’s deal

One of the country’s most senior defence officials has lamented the “relentless politicisation” of military capability decisions as he warned a room full of AUKUS sceptics that Australia will be left with no submarines if the project is dumped.

Deputy secretary for strategy and policy Hugh Jeffrey launched a strident defence for the trilateral partnership with the US and UK, as a 40-year senior Navy veteran declared that “it is never too late to stop a plan that is not going to bloody well work”.

During a day-long national security conference in Canberra hosted by Malcolm Turnbull, the former Prime Minister also challenged the high-ranking bureaucrat to reveal “what’s the plan B if we end up with no new subs” from the United States.

“You know, it’s not my job as a public servant, to talk about Plan Bs that’s the prerogative of government,” the Deputy Secretary of Defence told the UNSW Sovereignty and Security Forum.

“Defence has been directed to pursue AUKUS and we are pursuing AUKUS and that’s our plan. I would not venture into the space about ‘Plan B’ or ‘Plan C’ or whatever that is”.

Under the $368 billion project to replace the ageing Collins-class fleet, Australia is expected to begin receiving second-hand Virigina-class boats from the US Navy in the 2030s, but only if American submarine shipbuilding rates can improve.

Australia has already transferred $3 billion to the US to help more than double its nuclear-powered submarine production from the current level of just over one new boat a year, to 2.3 per year early next decade.

In his address Mr Jeffrey also noted that Australia had already abandoned earlier attempts to replace its Collins-class fleet, including plans to buy conventionally powered boats from Japan and France, warning another change would be disastrous.

“If you really want to be in a position where we have no submarines then ‘turn back’. I do think, speaking as an apolitical public servant, we need to get out of this relentless politicisation of defence capabilities.”

“Forgive me if I’m cynical about these questions. I do think we need to get on with business.”

Mr Jeffrey also told the forum that large expensive traditional military platforms such as warships and planes were more vulnerable in future warfare, but argued crewed submarines, particularly nuclear-powered boats, were an exception.

“You can’t focus on one to the exclusion of the other, you need both. The Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict has demonstrated that autonomy is no silver bullet. It’s no panacea. You need crewed systems, but you also need uncrewed systems, and they work together.”

But retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, a former submarine commander, warned the navy would never receive Virginia-class boats from the US, and that problems with the UK’s nuclear submarine program were a “canary in the coal mine” for Australia.

“It is never too late to stop a plan that is not going to bloody well work. It is not going to work. There will be no Virginians. If they gave us Virginians, we couldn’t man them. They’re too big, too many people, etc,” he told the Canberra forum.

Admiral Briggs also warned the UK had “dropped below the minimal sustainable force” for submarines and the country would be late in delivering its first SSN-AUKUS boat, a design which Australia is also hoping to start building in Adelaide in the 2030s.

“It is queued up behind the final two (Astute-class boats) and four critically important ballistic missile submarines, the Dreadnoughts, that are being built in the shipyard.

“You cannot get the first SSN-AUKUS out until the fourth ballistic missile submarine is clear of the yard. That is the UK’s national priority.”