AI productivity roundtable: More jobs created than lost through artificial intelligence, expert claims

Major technological advances can boost job creation but Australia must fully realise the gains of artificial intelligence to turbocharge its economy, the co-author of a major new Productivity Commission report has said. Optimism about the augmentation of jobs through AI must also be balanced with equipping workers for change and support for retraining in new skills, Productivity Commissioner Julie Abramson told The Nightly in an exclusive interview.

Ms Abramson co-authored the Productivity Commission’s new report on “harnessing data and digital technology” with Dr Stephen King, to assess the potential impact of the artificial intelligence revolution on Australia’s economy.

As a lawyer with over 30 years regulatory experience at both State and Federal levels, she also cautioned against adding unnecessary layers to existing regulation governing rapidly evolving technologies, which could risk stifling innovation.

The report recommends the Government avoid new AI-specific laws and pause steps to mandate guardrails until reviews of gaps posed by AI to current regulatory structures are completed.

“The most important thing that we would say is that we’re not lessening regulation in terms of AI,” she said.

“What we’re saying is, let’s have a really systematic, methodical look at where laws actually are, what are the harms that we’re seeking to prevent?”

The report is one of five Productivity Commission research papers ahead of the Government’s economic reform roundtable later this month which will be dominated by AI issues, and it predicts that new technology could inject $116 billion into the economy.

But it also acknowledges that like all previous technological changes, the shifting workplace environment will increase the demand for workers in some professions and not others, leading to “painful transitions” as well as “new opportunities.”

Concerns have already been raised about the impact the new tech will have on jobs and creative industries, specifically around copyright.

The Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance immediately decried the PC report’s “resistance to much-needed legislation and regulation,” that would protect the industry from AI theft.

The MEAA flagged widespread concern about stolen work and future job losses without more mandatory “guardrails” on AI, highlighting its opposition to the relaxation of copyright rules that would enable the transfer of resources to foreign tech companies with no chance of compensation.

“More than 90 per cent of workers want AI regulation and for technology giants to be forced to pay for the work they steal,” it said in a statement.

The union found an unlikely ally in Coalition leader Sussan Ley, who agreed that it was “not appropriate for big tech to steal” Australian intellectual property and lashed the government for being weak on protecting copyrighted content from AI firms.

“I’m not hearing from this government about guardrails to protect Australian content,” the Opposition Leader said.

“It is not appropriate for big tech to steal the work of Australian artists, musicians, creators, news media, journalism and use it for their own ends without paying for it.

“AI is important. We should embrace the technology with respect to AI, but we have to get the balance right so that we can power the economy.

“And we have to protect people. We have to protect content creators, and I don’t see that.

A spokesperson for Seven West Media, publisher of The Nightly, also warned the Productivity Commission’s AI recommendations on copyright could have significant ramifications for Australian-made content.

“AI platforms need to stop stealing Australian-made content and adhere to our copyright laws, which are already fit-for-purpose,” the spokesperson said.

“To think they can hide behind fair dealing is ridiculous. It is just straight theft. No other industry is allowed to use other people’s work the way big tech currently is, so why is the Productivity Commission considering an exemption?

“From our journalists, to our editors, producers, writers and camera operators – everyone at Seven works incredibly hard to create our own content for Australian audiences. This content creation comes with significant investment but it is something we are very proud to do. To the extent that AI is disrupting our ability to commercialise that investment, we are very concerned.

“The Government should be similarly concerned that AI will ultimately lead to a significant reduction in content investment and creation in Australia by trusted news sources.”

In a sign of the fiery debate ahead, the Business Council of Australia welcomed the Commission’s report for taking a “sensible middle ground approach to regulation” to use existing laws to ensure the AI opportunity could be grasped while also providing appropriate protections.

“AI can help us work smarter, not harder, supporting workers and businesses to spend more time on the things that matter most,” chief executive Bran Black said.

Ms Abramson described the report’s estimate of the $116 billion AI boon to the economy as “conservative” but recognised that job fears had to be adequately addressed, including with efforts to help displaced workers retrain.

“It’s very important to acknowledge [concerns], but I think our starting point would say that we do know over the long term that major advances in technology do add jobs,” she said.

The report cites forecasts from the World Economic Forum that predict, at a global level, a net growth of 2 million jobs due to AI and information processing technologies within five years.

Overall, the WEF predicts wider job growth due to AI at 11 million compared to a displacement of 9 million by 2030.

The newly Productivity Commission analysis does not make its own precise forecasts about how many roles would be augmented or automated by AI, deferring to an upcoming study by Jobs and Skills Australia

But the researchers observed in a number of workplaces how AI was used to relieve workers of mundane tasks, said Ms Abramson, calling for “balanced conversations” about the challenges ahead.

“You’re always going to hear the story about the job losses. It’s not often that you’re going to hear the story about the job gains,” she said.

“Our point is that we’re doing jobs differently,” argued Ms Abramson, pointing to her own experience as a young lawyer sifting through volumes of documents – a job now alleviated by technology.

“In some areas, the ability of AI to crunch vast quantities of data has actually meant that humans can focus on much more interesting tasks and perhaps do things that they couldn’t do before,” she said.

“It’s a real opportunity to get growth in our economy.”

The PC report mentions early estimates that suggest AI will increase multifactor productivity by 0.5 per cent to 13 per cent over the next decade.

After its own examination of the assumptions underpinning these studies, the Commission concludes that “productivity gains above 2.3 per cent are likely” that would translate into about 4.3 per cent labor productivity growth over the next decade.

It cautions, however, that there is considerable uncertainty about the precise magnitude.

To illustrate productivity gains, it refers to examples including Lyro Robotics developing an avocado-sorting robot to identify the ripeness of the fruit, and Commonwealth Bank of Australia figures that show a 30 per cent drop in customer-reported fraud due to AI alerts.

However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers struck a note of caution on Wednesday, pledging to take a “middle path” on AI between the “Let It Rip” crowd and people “who pretend we can turn back the clock.”

While AI was a “game changer”, Dr Chalmers said the Government had to find ways to ensure it benefited workers and did not make them victims to technological change.

He said he was “optimistic that AI can be a force for good” while “also realistic about the risks.”

AI “has the potential to support all of our major economic goals, making our economy more productive stronger, lifting living standards over time and every single part of our lives will be impacted over time by artificial intelligence,” said Dr Chalmers.

He also downplayed concerns that copyright rules would be relaxed to enable data mining to train AI models.

Industry Minister Tim Ayres was looking at the issue closely and the Government would keep engaging with concerned parties to get it right, he said.

Copyright laws were already in force, differentiating the Australian regime with other jurisdictions.

“So there’s no ambiguity about that. Australian law, whether it’s criminal law or civil law, applies now,” he said, adding that the Government’s focus was on how AI impacts the workplace and not working up ways to change the copyright regime.