Arrivals down and fewer Australians are packing their bags for a move overseas
A rise in migration has shattered the government’s aim to lower Australia’s intake following an influx of arrivals after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Net overseas migration rose to 340,000 so far in 2024/25 as fewer people left Australian shores, defying a projected lower intake of around 260,000.
“While the number of new arrivals is declining in line with expectations at budget, departures were lower than expected in 2023/24,” said the government in its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook.
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By continuing you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.“Departures are expected to pick up over 2024/25, albeit at a slower rate than anticipated at budget.”
Treasurer Jim Chalmers could not explain the discrepancy in its projections saying “people are hanging around for longer ... I don’t have a more granular sense like that”.
The report said net overseas migration is forecast to be 225,000 in 2026/27 and 225,000 in 2027/28.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently released figures showing net overseas migration at 446,000 in 2023/24, down nearly 100,000 from a year earlier when it peaked at a record 536,000.
The largest group of migrant arrivals was still temporary students at 207,000 despite the government’s attempt to institute a cap that was harshly criticised from the lucrative higher education sector.
This still marked a decrease from the 278,000 in 2022/23.
The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that weaker immigration could come at a cost for Australia’s economy.
“An abrupt slowing of immigration would hinder consumption growth,” said the OECD in its outlook for Australia published earlier in December.
But the coalition savaged Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s previous commitment to halve the migration intake, saying it was putting pressure on an over-stretched housing market.
“Labor has no credibility on managing migration,” said opposition immigration spokesperson Dan Tehan.
In November, the Albanese government passed three migration laws with extensive powers such as deporting non-citizens including about 75,000 overstayers.
