COVID inquiry warns collapse in public trust will make response far more difficult in next pandemic

Australia fared relatively well during the COVID-19 pandemic but this apparent success came with significant costs to individuals, society, the health system and, crucially, a collapse in public trust that could make response to future crises far more difficult.

A national examination of the pandemic response warns that rebuilding trust, proper preparation on both health and economic fronts, and the establishment of a Centre for Disease Control as a trusted voice and collector of expert evidence are vital to making sure Australia will do better next time.

Future plans must also include considerations and triggers for exiting from emergency measures.

“We know that another pandemic could occur at any time, and it is imperative that governments are prepared,” the review led by senior public servant Robyn Kruk, epidemiologist Catherine Bennett and economist Angela Jackson warns.

“Next time, we cannot say it was unprecedented. We must act now to apply lessons learnt during the COVID‑19 response to strengthen our national resilience to the next crisis and avoid repeating the same mistakes.”

But they also warn that the low levels of trust — for example with general vaccination rates now below pre-COVID levels — mean leaders should not assume people will comply with restrictions and other necessary actions next time.

The panel says what was clear during the pandemic and as people reflected on it was that Australians above all wanted to understand why actions were being taken.

The lack of evidence and concerns about secrecy and opacity of decision-making contributed to the fall in trust.

While the inquiry said the national cabinet proved to be a good mechanism for swift and coordinated decision-making – especially because it was as leader level, not left to health ministers – trust also proved a challenge.

“The unity of purpose demonstrated during the initial phases of the pandemic waned as the emergency continued, and trust between leaders eroded,” the report says, noting this led to varied approaches being adopted by different jurisdictions which further eroded public trust and confidence.

Setting up a CDC would give politicians, public servants and the public a central point to look to for trusted and authoritative risk assessments and communication.

It should also be a national repository for communicable disease data, evidence and advice and pursue world-leading public health surveillance such as waste-water testing.

Another key lesson the inquiry drew was the importance of the economic response.

Before COVID-19, what pandemic plans existed only considered health responses, not economic supports, yet measures such as wage subsidies were vital to ensuring that people followed health advice such as restrictions on going to work.

But there was also a high economic cost with $213.7 billion in support rolled out in March 2020.

As well, the inquiry found that the delay in vaccine rollout and additional lockdowns that occurred because of that delay had a $31 billion direct economic cost.

The panel was also highly concerned about the impact on children and young people, particularly from the closure of schools, which was not based on evidence or recommendations from the expert health panel but rather was driven by parents not feeling their fears for their children were being adequately addressed by governments at the time.

It recommends that states and territories improve their capability to shift to remote learning if required, including actively educating teachers how to do it, and to ramp up mental health supports for young people.

The review received 2201 submissions and held 27 stakeholder roundtables.

Its 868-page report recommends 19 immediate actions that governments should do in the next 12-18 months and seven medium-term actions that should be taken before the next pandemic.