Federal election: Victoria shaping up to be key battleground state for Anthony Albanese as support dives

Victoria could join New South Wales as a critical election battleground at the next federal election, with the Coalition and Labor neck and neck in the states, according to the latest Newspoll analysis.

A swing to the Labor Party in Western Australia at the 2022 election helped seal victory for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

But Mr Albanese has seemingly lost his touch with Middle Australia and women voters amid the cost of living crisis, which could spell trouble for the incumbent.

The next federal election is due sometime in the next five months.

New demographic and state-by-state Newspoll analysis published in The Australian on Thursday shows that Labor could be bleeding support in Victoria.

Two-party preferred support is now even at 50-50 in Victoria and NSW.

While Labor’s primary vote has plunged to 30 per cent in Victoria, the Coalition’s has risen from 36 to 39 per cent over the past three polling periods.

Newspoll analysis shows the Prime Minister’s leadership approval rating has taken a sharp nose dive in Victoria, dropping to 41 per cent from 46 per cent in April to June.

The analysis shows Labor is gaining some extra support in Western Australia.

However, both the Coalition and Labor are losing primary vote support in Queensland, another key battleground state. The Liberal National Party regained power at the state level at the October state election.

The analysis shows Labor is struggling to maintain the support of 35-49-year-old voters, many of whom have mortgages and are unhappy with high interest rates and cost of living pressures.

Labor’s primary vote among 35- to 49-year-olds has slid from 35 per cent in the April-June period to 33 in the July-September survey. It has since dropped to 31 percent in the October-December period.

Labor’s two-party-preferred lead in this demographic dropped from a 53 per cent (to the Coalition’s 47 per cent) six months ago to an even split now.

In contrast, however, Labor is apparently clawing back the favour of younger voters — stealing supporters from the Greens, who relied on a strong youth turnout for its Greenslite at the last federal election.

Labor is just a nose ahead of both the Coalition and the greens among younger voters with a 63 to 37 per cent two-party-preferred advantage.

The Coalition, however, has well and truly won over older voters, with the two-party-preference for over 65-year-old voters 62 to 38 per cent against Labor.

Mr Albanese spent Christmas Day in Darwin to honour the 50th anniversary of Cyclone Tracy, the 1974 natural disaster which claimed 66 lives and severely damaged the city.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton sought to capitalise on the country’s economic woes in his Christmas message.

“With everything costing more, many Australians had to make do with less,” he said on Tuesday.

The quarterly Newspoll analysis draws on regular Newspoll surveys between October and December with more than 3700 voters throughout Australia interviewed.