Indo-Pacific security environment ‘dangerous’: Defence officials issue grim update

Senior Defence officials are warning of the growing risk of a major conflict close to Australia in the next five years but are stopping short of describing the Indo Pacific security environment as “dangerous”.

At a senate estimates hearing the Department has also defended the pace of preparing the massive Henderson defence precinct in Western Australia ahead of the scheduled arrival of US nuclear-powered submarines from 2027.

Under questioning from shadow foreign minister Michaelia Cash, Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty told the committee that Australia’s strategic circumstances were “deteriorating”.

“I think that the risk of an incident has heightened over recent years and the trends continue to be very worrying for us,” Mr Moriarty said when asked about the prospect of a major regional conflict by 2030.

“The Australian government has talked about its concern about coercive Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea … we’ve had unsafe and unprofessional behaviour towards ADF assets and there’s a growing PLA (People’s Liberation Army) assertiveness,” Mr Moriarty said.

“We see additional deployments south, including into waters around Indonesia and other parts of South-East Asia, and we expect that there will continue to be increasing deployments in waters proximate to us.”

Defence deputy secretary Hugh Jeffrey said the main concern was a possible confrontation between the US and China and described the prospect of a major power conflict in the Indo-Pacific in the next five years as “less remote than it was”.

“The trajectory is becoming more risky, not less risky, and the job of Australian defence strategy is trying to contribute to a set of circumstances in our region that minimises that risk”.

Mr Jeffrey said China was “seeking to expand their strategic room for manoeuvre,” and noted “the problem, of course, is this comes into conflict with the legitimate rights and territorial domains of other states”.

“We need to think harder about how we structure the force and how we prepare for worst case outcomes and in so doing give government options to prevent them occurring in the first place,” he added.

Senator Cash also pressed officials on why the defence department does not use the word “dangerous” to describe the Indo-Pacific environment in the way Australia’s ally New Zealand does.

“I think we use ‘challenging’, which is the word, the most challenging strategic environment since World War II but I wouldn’t quibble with the word ‘dangerous’ as opposed to ‘challenging’,” Mr Jeffrey responded.

Defence Department Secretary Greg Moriarty insisted Australia’s strategic outlook was very similar to New Zealand’s, even though this country did not use the word “dangerous” in documents.

“They’ll frame things their own way Senator, and I think we’re very broadly comfortable that we and New Zealand have some very common strategic perceptions,” Mr Moriarty responded.

In May this year, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth warned of China posing an “imminent” threat to Taiwan, while urging regional nations to boost defence spending and work with the Trump administration to deter war.

“There’s no reason to sugar coat it. The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent,” Secretary Hegseth declared in a speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

Earlier this week Australia’s top intelligence official warned that the country’s passive approach in dealing with geopolitical tension is being exploited by potential adversaries like China and Iran.

Speaking in Perth on Monday, Office of National ­Intelligence director-general Andrew Shearer said the global military balance is “shifting against the West” with Australia’s deterrence to threats “eroding”.

“Our adversaries are ­exploiting our preference for ­restraint and de-escalation and leveraging coercion, cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation to test us without triggering outright conflict,” he told the Australia Japan Business Co-operation Committee conference.

“Often, they act through proxies, whether organised crime syndicates, front companies, armed groups or maritime militias.

“These tactics exploit the openness of our economies, societies and polities, and are very hard for liberal democracies to counter.

“They have become the day-to-day reality for governments, but also increasingly, for businesses.”

Defence grilled on progress at Henderson Defence Precinct

The department has also been quizzed on recent revelations that proposed boundaries for a massive new Defence site at Henderson had not been finalised despite the expected deployment of US nuclear submarines to Western Australia in 2027.

“This is a very large complex program ... What we are doing Senator is we are evolving the design and planning process and we’re only 12 months into that,” Deputy Secretary Naval Shipbuilding and Sustainment David Hanley told the committee.

“So we need to define the options and the feasibility of the various locations of the activities, the infrastructure, supply chain and the workforce that we require at the Henderson precinct, and we do that as we mature the design.”

Mr Hanley insisted the WA government “have been party to the discussions where we’ve been evolving that design” and said his department would provide advice to government on locations at “the right time”.

The Defence Secretary said there would be “substantial costs that need to be clarified and firmed up as this process takes place over several years”.

“There’s very deliberate and important design work going on, we are trying to seek to establish options, a preferred option for the layout of the precinct,” Mr Moriarty said.