Why AUKUS is in Vladimir Putin’s sights: ‘It shows how much it irks them’

Vladimir Putin has taken fresh aim at AUKUS and warned that the Indo-Pacific is “becoming increasingly prone to conflict” in what marks a significant ratcheting up of the Kremlin’s critiques of Australia’s plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

The Kremlin has criticised AUKUS since its inception but contained its initial criticisms to concerns about nuclear proliferation, the effect on regional stability and anti-China coalitions.

But last week Russia stepped up its critiques when Mr Putin made a provocative visit to the disputed Kuril Islands, igniting a diplomatic row with neighbouring Japan. Both Japan and Russia claim the islands, which provide Russia with vital maritime access to the Pacific during winter.

Speaking on a warship, Mr Putin told the Commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet, Viktor Liina, that new military and political blocs were exacerbating the risk of conflict.

“The region is unfortunately becoming increasingly prone to conflict, with NATO seeking to gain a foothold here and the emergence of new military and political blocs. There are efforts and plans to deploy new weapons systems here, which creates threats for our country,” Mr Putin said.

In response, Mr Liina said the military and political situation in the region was tense and singled out Australia’s submarine plan as one of the causes.

“The principal drivers of heightened military and political tension are the destructive activities of Western states aimed at reconfiguring the security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region, the build‑up of their forward military presence, as well as the establishment of new Western‑controlled military and political alliances. Specifically, I refer to the AUKUS bloc and the Trilateral Pact,” he said.

The Commander’s comments about AUKUS were a direct echo of what President Putin has said in the past. The Kremlin’s first criticisms were made as he prepared to launch his illegal invasion of Ukraine and six months after former prime ministers Scott Morrison, Boris Johnson of the UK and former US president Joe Biden announced the trilateral submarine deal.

Mr Putin signed a “no-limits” pact with Chinese President Xi Jinping that stated the pair’s “serious concerns” about AUKUS.

“Russia and China believe that such actions are contrary to security in the region, could provoke an arms race and risk nuclear proliferation,” their joint statement said.

But Mr Putin’s rhetoric has hardened as his illegal war with Ukraine has ground on, and he has become increasingly dependent on China for goods that fuel his war effort.

He told the Moscow Conference on International Security that AUKUS was an “aggressive military-political union” and claimed it is a NATO plot to expand into the region.

“We cannot exclude that these efforts may pave the way to fully integrating NATO forces with the AUKUS structures as they take shape,” he said.

“We also see that the collective West is striving to expand its bloc-based system to the Asia-Pacific region, like it did with NATO in Europe. To this end, they are creating aggressive military-political unions such as AUKUS and others,” he said.

“We cannot exclude that these efforts may pave the way to fully integrating NATO forces with the AUKUS structures as they take shape.”

And as he illegally claimed the accession of Ukrainian territories in September 2022, seven months after launching his war, Mr Putin railed against the US.

“The dictates of the US are backed up by crude force, on the law of the fist,” he said.

“Sometimes it is beautifully wrapped; sometimes there is no wrapping at all, but the gist is the same — the law of the fist.

“Hence, the deployment and maintenance of hundreds of military bases in all corners of the world, NATO expansion, and attempts to cobble together new military alliances, such as AUKUS and the like.”

Mr Putin’s criticisms of AUKUS have been unprompted except in only one other case, when he was asked by a pro-Kremlin Indonesian academic if he could join forces with China in the UN Security Council to “wipe out” NATO, AUKUS and the Quad, the loose grouping of the United States, Japan, Australia and India that has never met at the leader level since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Mr Putin said: “This is an attempt to be friends with someone against someone, in this case, against China. Not only do we not support an attempt to revive or recreate what happened in the Atlantic in the Asia-Pacific region, but we also believe that this is a very harmful and dangerous approach.”

Former prime minister Scott Morrison said Russia’s concerns about AUKUS were a joke.

“Claims by Russia that AUKUS ‘exacerbates the risk of conflict’ can be simply decoded as making it more difficult for illiberal states like Russia and China for that matter, to impose their hegemonic will on their regional neighbours,” he told The Nightly.

“As for Russia being concerned about nuclear non-proliferation, the furphy put about by China at the time AUKUS was established, this is just comical.

“Russia’s concern with AUKUS is that it is effective and demonstrates the restraining agency of liberal alliances in the region to effectively deter bullying states. Russia would simply prefer Australia, together with other allies and partners in the region, including Japan, to allow Russia and their forever partnership friends to just do as they wish and then say thank you to them.”

AUKUS is a pledge for the US and UK to deliver Australia nuclear-powered submarines and to build new weapons together.

The United States will also gain an effective base for a combat squadron of submarines out Perth’s HMAS Stirling, giving the US closer reach to waterways China wants to dominate.

US President Donald Trump has also said the submarine deal is about trying to deter President Xi from taking over Taiwan.

Russia and China have grown increasingly close since Mr Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, which China has essentially bankrolled and never condemned.

Alexander Gaubev, director of Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Centre, said Mr Putin’s anxiety about AUKUS demonstrated the Kremlin’s vulnerability.

“He understands that the primary target is China, but then by extension, Russia is also threatened. He also knows that Russia is pretty vulnerable because the war in Ukraine consumes a lot,” he told The Nightly.

He said Russia’s Pacific Fleet had never been in great shape and was outmatched by comparable navies.

“So you left yourself increasingly exposed in an increasingly tough neighbourhood where economies that have larger GDP, that are more advanced, logically are rapidly militarising or re-militarising which is a source of concern,” he said.

Russia fields 23 attack submarines as part of its Pacific Fleet, according to the Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute, which the think tank says is well-placed to assist China in any Pacific conflict.

Peter Tesch, who served as Australia’s Ambassador in Russia, said it was the “usual mindf...kery by the Kremlin.”

“It is an entirely consistent pattern that is common to both China and Russia of seeking to ferment a sense of beleaguerment, external threat, but obviously the fact that they single it out proves that it irks them,” he said.

And he said Russia’s interest in AUKUS should not be dismissed.

“So the constant motifs in the Kremlin’s worldview, which of course is designed for internal consumption as much if not more than external, is that they’re all against and the arch enemy is NATO,” he said.

“And you’ve seen the narratives evolve over the last 18 months to two years of Putin’s spectacularly unsuccessful war of we are not fighting Ukraine, we are fighting the West and so the boogie that is the West is part of the domestically oriented narrative.”

Kateryna Argyrou, chair of the Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organisations, said it showed why Australia’s support for Ukraine was directly linked to Australia’s own safety.

“These comments make explicit what Russia has long signalled — that it regards AUKUS, Western regional partnerships, and the ordinary defence posture of democracies like Australia as provocations, while it conducts naval drills, threatens to stop and search vessels in the Pacific, and stages territorial visits of its own throughout the region,” she said.

“This is the same pattern Russia has followed for years — manufacturing grievance narratives to justify its own aggression. We can’t assume distance keeps us out of this.

“What Russia does in Ukraine, and what its commanders are now signalling in the Pacific, are part of the same worldview — one where sovereignty is negotiable and alliances of democracies are treated as threats.

“If sovereignty can be redrawn by force in Europe and go unchallenged, that precedent does not stay in Europe.”

NATO boss Mark Rutte has repeatedly warned of the prospect of a two-front war, saying that if China wanted to move on Taiwan, President Xi would ask Russia to keep the Europeans busy.

NATO, a defensive Alliance comprising European countries, the United States and Canada, does not include any Indo-Pacific countries but has been trying to forge closer cooperation on mutual security threats by inviting Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea to recent annual summits.

At the Ankara summit last month, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte criticised China’s launch of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile that fell near Tuvalu, prompting condemnation around the region.

Chinese state media reacted angrily and echoed Russia’s false claims about NATO wanting to expand into the region.