Newspoll: Anthony Albanese’s Labor and Peter Dutton’s Liberals draw level in NSW as ALP dips in Victoria
New polling figures show Anthony Albanese is on track to lose his majority at the election, with support between the major parties drawing level in NSW and dropping for Labor in Victoria.
Quarterly analysis of Newspoll results published in The Australian shows two-party preferred support for Labor and the Coalition has drawn even to 50 per cent each in Australia’s most populous state.
Such a result repeated at the election would see Labor lose the seats of Gilmore and Bennelong to the Liberals, both narrowly won by the Government in 2022.
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The growth in Liberal support would also bolster the party’s chances of taking back seats lost to the Teal independents, including Mackellar and North Sydney, won by Allegra Spender and Kylea Tink last election.
In Victoria, the Coalition has eked out a narrow lead for the first time on primary support.
Of most concern for Labor, its support dropped by 6 per cent in WA from the last election, down to 49 per cent compared to Peter Dutton’s Coalition at 51 per cent.
The result in WA, along with the two parties drawing level in NSW, would be enough to tip Mr Albanese and Labor into a minority government next term.
A small uptick in support for Labor in Queensland would not be enough to see any seats change hands — placing a proposed Government strategy to nullify losses elsewhere by gains in the sunshine state under threat.
Nationwide, Mr Albanese’s Labor still holds a narrow 52 per cent to 48 per cent lead over the Coalition.
The analysis covers off the first three months of 2024, where Labor sought to bounce back from a bruising 2023 and the failed Voice referendum by overhauling the Stage 3 tax cuts.
The next election, due by May 2025, will see Labor defending 77 seats, a slim hold of a majority government.
The result comes after last week’s Newspoll, which showed support for federal Labor had plunged to its lowest levels since the last election.
The 32 per cent national primary vote was Labor’s worst result since the failure of the Voice referendum in November and comes amid persistent inflation pressures.
