NICOLA SMITH: Donald Trump’s tariff confirmation proves our ‘great and powerful friend’ is not a friend

As if waking up to a bucket of ice water thrown in its face, Australia learnt on Wednesday it would not be granted a longed-for reprieve from damaging US tariffs on its steel and aluminium exports.

“(Trump) considered it and considered against it. There will be no exemptions,” said White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, delivering the verdict dispassionately to Australian media in Washington overnight.

“American-first steel. And if they want to be exempted, they should consider moving steel manufacturing here.”

The Government did not mince its words responding to the “unprovoked and unjustified” move, repeating a sharp reproach on loop that this is “no way to treat a friend and partner.”

But the stinging truth is that today’s America is nobody’s friend and there is no blueprint to navigate this harsh, new Trump universe.

Just ask Canada, the US’ northern neighbour, threatened with 50 per cent tariffs after President Trump specifically doubled the levy in retaliation for a planned surcharge on electricity exports to three US states.

The order was rescinded after Canada blinked on the surcharge, but Mr Trump still seems determined to annex a trusted ally as a “cherished Fifty First State.”

While the US is, at least, “not demeaning” Australia like Canada, Canberra is facing a “very precarious” moment with Washington, said Wesley Widmaier, a professor at the ANU’s department of international relations.

“Australia needs to recognise that for right now, as Menzies would have put it, our great and powerful friend is not a friend,” he argued.

Canberra is not alone in struggling to find the right strategy for disorienting times.

Mexico obeyed US demands to deport 29 drug cartel figures and dismantle hundreds of methamphetamine labs. The UK’s Keir Starmer opted for charm and a coveted invitation to meet King Charles.

But whether you play hardball like Canada or trust in reasoned arguments like Australia, nothing will wash with a White House driven by an entrenched isolationist approach to trade that fears special treatment for one will open the floodgates to others.

The writing was on the wall just minutes after a buoyant Anthony Albanese told the Canberra media Mr Trump agreed to consider an exemption during their constructive phone call on February 11.

Less than an hour later, the President, signing an executive order on blanket global tariffs in the Oval Office, forgot to mention his promise to Australia, until reminded by a reporter.

On Wednesday, Trade Minister Don Farrell looked resigned and jaded as he faced questions on Sky news.

“I don’t believe that there was any intention on the part of the United States Government to give us an exemption,” he said, admonishing Washington for not being upfront from the start.

On the eve of an election, where political point scoring is reaching its peak, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton made the brash claim there was “no question” his government could do a deal with Mr Trump.

It’s a surprisingly bold statement in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment, and one that few seasoned world leaders would be quick to make.

“I think we are operating with a different reality,” said Andrew McKellar who, as CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), represents the industries who must deal with the fallout.

The only way forward was to “play the long game,” working with Government to build up relationships with new and existing contacts and “not give up” in pressing Australia’s case, said Mr McKellar.

“I don’t think we should hold out false hope that there’ll be a quick change here, but we’ve seen already that measures can be announced, and measures can be varied,” he said.

Professor Widmaier agreed Australia, even as a trusted security partner and running a trade deficit with the US, had no coercive sway over the current administration.

“If there’s nothing you can do, you have to wait for and hope America comes to its senses,” he said.