Peter Dutton on why he believes Coalition can win Federal election and make Albanese Government single-term

Peter Dutton has poked fun at his physical appearance, suggesting that going bald may have added to his tough man persona and affected how voters view him.

But the Opposition Leader said he felt he was in a winnable position ahead of the next Federal election because the more voters saw him talk about issues outside of his previous border security job, the more they took him seriously.

Mr Dutton has long yearned to show voters his sense of humour, saying in 2018 when he challenged Malcolm Turnbull for the Prime Ministership that it was “good to be in front of the cameras where I can smile and maybe show a different side to what I show when I talk about border protection.”

His elevation to the leadership delighted Labor, with Cabinet Minister Tanya Plibersek labelling him Voldemort, an insult she was forced to withdraw.

Since becoming leader, Mr Dutton has kept up some of the provocative tactics that he employed as Home Affairs Minister. But when asked on the Bourke & Ryan podcast if he had thought about putting those tactics aside and transitioning into a more statesmanlike role, Mr Dutton said voters were already seeing, and liking, his different style.

He said when he was Home Affairs and Defence Minister he had to deliver tough decisions on sensitive matters like visa cancellations and go on the attack in Question Time.

“You do get typecast and I don’t recommend anyone to go bald because all of a sudden the whole persona changes and you’re seen as a tougher guy,” Mr Dutton said.

“I’ve been a leader for just over two years now and I think over the last two years people have been able to look at me more holistically.”

Pointing to his approval rating, he argued it had changed “quite dramatically” since he took on the role after the last election, highlighting that in some polling he was ahead as preferred prime minister.

“I’m taken much more seriously than I would be two years ago,” he said.

Last month, Mr Dutton overtook Mr Albanese in Resolve’s Political Monitor measuring preferred prime minister.

This month, the Coalition overtook Labor in the popular vote in Freshwater’s poll and edged ahead to 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis. However, Mr Albanese remained ahead as the preferred prime minister in both Freshwater and Newspoll’s most recent surveys.

Mr Dutton became Opposition Leader following the Coalition’s defeat in 2022 when, under Scott Morrison, the Coalition suffered their worst defeat since 1946.

But despite the Liberals and Nationals haemorrhaging seats, Labor only just won majority government with 77 seats. The government later improved its margin to 78 after winning the Aston by-election.

No Federal Government has been confined to one term since the 1930s.

But Mr Dutton said his approval ratings plus the upheaval in traditional media and growth of social media placed the opposition in a “winnable position in the run-up to the election.”

“In a contemporary sense, it’s much easier now to conceive of a government changing after one term,” he said.

“And we’ve seen it at a state level.”

He said he was focused on presenting good policies and maintaining unity in his party.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is due to reshuffle his Cabinet this weekend, in another sign he could call the election earlier than next May as he has previously suggested.

The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green said it was normal in Australian politics for first-term governments to lose support.

“The Albanese government has only a small majority so the next election could push it into minority,” he said.

Green said the Coalition needed to gain 10 seats on a uniform swing of around three per cent to end up with more seats than Labor and a swing of around six per cent to claim the 18 seats required for a majority government.

“The last time we saw a swing of that magnitude was at the end of the Whitlam government in 1975,” he said.

“If the Coalition can recover some of the seats lost to Teal independents at the last two elections, the swing to win government comes down.

“Otherwise, Peter Dutton’s chances of becoming Prime Minister next year requires the Coalition to venture further up the electoral pendulum to win seats that rarely leave the Labor fold.”