Peter Dutton went nuclear with the boldest pitch from an Opposition Leader in decades. Here’s why he did it

It may have been crazy-brave, but there was a method to his madness.

Peter Dutton had a number of things going for him when he stood up on Wednesday morning to announce the first details of his long-awaited nuclear policy: seven nuclear reactors across the country up and running by 2050, the first within 11 to 13 years.

Insiders say Wednesday just happened to be the perfect combination of all the policy grunt work finally being done, majority support in the seven communities it has earmarked for a nuclear reactor, the looming threat of an election being called at any time now, and that — as the polls show, and one person put — “the government is flailing”.

But the decision to pull the trigger this week also came off the back of a slew of recent opinion polls that show support for nuclear energy is growing — including among climate-concerned young people.

Newspoll’s February survey found that 55 per cent of all voters supported the idea of small modular reactors as a replacement technology for coal-fired power, which we now know forms part of Mr Dutton’s plan.

The highest levels of support, it found, were among 18 to 34-year-olds, with 65 per cent saying they would approve such a proposal.

Then there was the Lowy Institute’s 2024 poll, that found 61 per cent of Australians, either strongly (27 per cent) or somewhat (34 per cent) supported using nuclear power to generate electricity alongside other sources of energy. In comparison, 37 per cent “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose nuclear.

Freshwater Strategy earlier this week gave the Coalition another leg to stand on when it released its latest poll findings, showing support for nuclear energy had increased five points to 37 per cent since September.

Comparatively, solar had 81 per cent support, natural gas had 58 per cent support, and offshore wind had 56 per cent support.

The same poll found there had been a 15 per cent decline in support for purely renewables since June, while support for non-renewable energy (including gas) was up four per cent.

Director Leo Shanahan said more broadly, there was a trend that “speaks to increased skepticism around the reliability of renewable”.

“Despite being less popular than the likes of solar, gas, and both forms of wind, nuclear on our polling has shown reasonably significantly increased support since September last year,” he said.

“There’s 37 per cent support for nuclear, 32 per cent opposition, and about 30 per cent either undecided or neutral. There’s a large middle ground nuclear can make up.”

With the polls recording such varied responses, internally, there’s some division in the Coalition whether or not this risks pushing them further into opposition.

Much has been said in the days following the announcement about the lingering questions the Coalition must answer — the cost, the type of reactors, where the waste will be stored — but all of that becomes moot if Mr Dutton can’t lead the Liberal and National parties to victory in the next election.

Due by May 2025, Mr Dutton declared the next poll a “referendum on energy policy” as he drew battle lines between two paths to net zero.

“We go to the next election seeking a mandate from the Australian people, a very clear mandate that we want support to modernise our energy system. We want support to enact our vision for our country,” Mr Dutton said.

Labor insiders believe the Coalition has just handed them another term in government – even if they do face the risk of it being in minority.

There’s a school of thought in Parliament House that Mr Dutton must, on some level, know he doesn’t have a chance at the next election, and is throwing his nuclear policy into the mix to distract Labor’s attention away from the biggest problem Australians care about - cost-of-living.

That school of thought could prove true, but, make no mistake, the Opposition think they’re in with a chance.

Recent opinion polls show the Prime Minister’s approval rating is on the decline.

Anthony Albanese may say he doesn’t focus on the polls, but Coalition insiders say the writing is on the wall if he looks.

The latest Resolve polls published in the Nine Newspapers show Mr Dutton has now edged out Mr Albanese as the preferred prime minister - 36 per cent to 35 per cent.

Only 36 per cent of those respondents said Mr Albanese was doing a good job, while 50 per cent said he was doing a poor job.

Mr Dutton, meanwhile, attracted praise from 42 per cent of voters, with 40 per cent rating his performance as poor.

Elsewhere, the latest Australian Financial Review/ Freshwater Strategy Poll showed Mr Albanese’s edge over Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister had fallen to just a two-point lead while also showing him with a lower approval rating than the opposition leader for only the second time since being elected in 2022.

That same poll found both the Coalition and Labor’s primary vote remained unchanged, at 32 per cent and 40 per cent respectively, and 50 per cent each on two-party preferred.

But Mr Albanese is right when he says “the only poll that matters is on the one on election day”, and RedBridge director Kos Samaras says that’s still unlikely to go Mr Dutton’s way.

Mr Samaras said if Labor battled nuclear on how expensive it is, that argument would likely appeal directly to voters struggling with the cost of living.

“Most Australians out there, especially in outer-suburban areas, could not give a toss whether it’s nuclear or renewables power. They just want to know that they won’t have to pay through the nose to keep the lights on,” he said.

“If nuclear is painted as hyper-expensive, the only interpretation is ‘that will hit my electricity bills’.”

If Labor lost outer-suburban seats to the Coalition in the next election, he said it was unlikely to be because of the nuclear policy and more because voters believed Mr Albanese had “let them down” on cost-of-living and other key issues.

He said the Coalition’s nuclear policy would further alienate the inner-city seats it lost to the teals in 2022, and risked losing ground in other Liberal seats that community independents now had in their sights.

“This makes the Coalition’s ability to talk to electorates they lost in 2022 to the teals and Labor and the Greens … is washed away as a result of this, and walking away from the (2030) emissions target,” Mr Samaras said.